NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	97		Excitement	4.5 [902]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +15.7%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	1.0 [1175]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -13.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Thomas	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	11	69%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Cuttino Mobley	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	20	48%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Moochie Norris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	73%	0.02	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	4	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terence Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	0.02	-0.01	0.07	13	46%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	18	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Francis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	0.01	17	43%	-0.08	3	-0.06	10	90%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.02	-0.02	17	70%	0.17	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	59%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	12	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	13	53%	0.04	5	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.16	0.00	-0.07	15	25%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.4	29.5	17.4	27.5	2.5	37.3	137.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.0%

SAS +2.0%

SAS +11.4%

HOU -7.9%

SAS +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.6	107.8	110.0	102.3
season	16.8	15.8		100.9	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.2		98.0	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	18.5	16.1	14.8	16.3
SAS	15.3	14.3	15.9	17.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terence Morris	16	15	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-6	10	16.6	16.3	0.37	14.5	15.9	-1.45
Kevin Willis	10	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-2	2	16.7	16.3	0.42	15.1	15.7	-0.65
Kenny Thomas	44	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-1	0	17.2	15.5	1.73	15.7	15.7	-0.02
Eddie Griffin	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.40	3	-5	8	15.7	17.4	-1.69	15.5	15.9	-0.37
Moochie Norris	45	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.49	6	-8	14	16.4	16.3	0.07	15.8	15.6	0.16
Kelvin Cato	66	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	4	-10	16.0	17.1	-1.04	16.5	13.4	3.07
Walt Williams	52	52	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	11	-24	17.4	14.9	2.47	14.7	17.1	-2.38
Cuttino Mobley	80	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-1	0	15.7	20.9	-5.15	16.0	13.6	2.33
Steve Francis	80	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	0	-2	16.3	16.7	-0.42	15.7	15.1	0.65

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	84	84	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	-3	8	15.9	13.0	2.87	16.5	14.5	1.95
Tim Duncan	73	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-7	16	15.3	17.4	-2.14	16.7	14.6	2.07
Bruce Bowen	81	82	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	1	0	15.8	15.0	0.75	16.2	18.0	-1.84
Steven Smith	41	41	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-10	22	15.0	16.2	-1.20	18.2	14.7	3.53
Malik Rose	53	53	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.49	-8	10	-18	15.8	15.5	0.37	15.3	17.8	-2.44
David Robinson	54	54	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.17	3	-1	4	16.1	15.1	0.99	16.8	15.6	1.14
Antonio Daniels	35	35	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.43	-6	8	-14	16.2	15.3	0.90	15.1	17.1	-2.07
Terry Porter	6	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	5	-8	13.0	15.9	-2.87	14.5	16.5	-1.95
Danny Ferry	23	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	5	-8	15.7	15.7	0.08	15.4	16.6	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.81,0.74,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 80, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,1	96.0%
TOR 104, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1	95.9%
SAC 96, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.83,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.98,1,0.99,1,0.95,1	95.4%