NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	116		Excitement	6.1 [572]		MVP	Jerome James (SEA): +18.9%
Seattle SuperSonics	122		Comeback	5.0 [514]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (MEM): -17.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.16	-0.01	0.03	15	76%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.01	12	70%	0.16	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.13	-0.01	0.04	14	69%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	8	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	6	54%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	8	52%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Earl Watson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Lorenzen Wright	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	11	42%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bonzi Wells	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.16,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.06	9	25%	-0.13	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.03

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.10	0.00	7	80%	0.19	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.00	6	112%	0.29	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	8	89%	0.18	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	21	58%	0.13	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	14	47%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	0.04	5	64%	-0.05	0	0.00	12	67%	-0.03
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	4	40%	-0.03	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.7	32.2	16.7	28.2	1.6	38.0	142.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +52.9%

SEA +0.4%

SEA +5.9%

MEM -10.3%

SEA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SEA	NBA	MEM	SEA	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.7	124.7	131.2	100.5
season	15.3	15.6		102.3	105.0
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.9	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.3	16.3	17.1	14.5	15.4
SEA	18.0	15.0	11.7	18.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	56	55	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.34	10	-16	26	15.6	15.0	0.63	17.0	13.7	3.31
Pau Gasol	52	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-7	8	16.2	14.3	1.86	14.9	16.5	-1.56
Stromile Swift	26	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-1	-4	14.5	15.7	-1.19	16.9	15.1	1.77
Mike Miller	56	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-9	12	15.6	14.9	0.68	15.2	16.2	-1.01
Earl Watson	25	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	0	-6	15.6	15.3	0.28	16.8	15.2	1.68
Jason Williams	68	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-6	6	15.3	15.6	-0.28	15.2	16.8	-1.68
Lorenzen Wright	58	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	0	-6	16.1	14.1	1.94	14.9	16.9	-2.05
Bonzi Wells	37	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	3	-12	14.9	15.6	-0.68	16.2	15.2	1.01
Bo Outlaw	41	41	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.23	-7	1	-8	14.3	16.2	-1.86	16.5	14.9	1.56
Shane Battier	46	46	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	5	-16	14.6	16.1	-1.48	14.2	17.0	-2.72

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	40	41	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.21	6	0	6	17.6	14.1	3.44	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Rashard Lewis	80	81	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.29	3	3	0	15.0	19.5	-4.47	15.2	16.3	-1.12
Jerome James	39	38	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.05	10	-4	14	15.7	15.5	0.23	15.6	15.2	0.33
Ronald Murray	31	29	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.04	10	-4	14	16.4	15.2	1.16	15.4	15.3	0.09
Reggie Evans	28	29	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-5	16	17.2	14.9	2.24	15.4	15.3	0.09
Vitaly Potapenko	25	25	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	2	2	16.1	15.4	0.64	15.8	15.2	0.61
Ray Allen	75	76	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	7	-8	16.0	14.2	1.79	15.5	14.8	0.72
Vladimir Radmanovic	60	59	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	2	2	14.9	16.8	-1.87	16.2	13.8	2.41
Brent Barry	63	62	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.27	-2	8	-10	14.2	18.5	-4.31	15.0	16.1	-1.06
Richie Frahm	3	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	5	-4	7.0	15.9	-8.90	7.3	15.6	-8.29
Calvin Booth	21	22	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.18	-16	22	-38	16.3	15.4	0.87	14.7	15.5	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	93.6%
CHI 77, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.98,1,1	92.9%
BOS 89, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.66,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	92.7%