NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	5.2 [785]		MVP	Caron Butler (WAS): +22.4%
Washington Wizards	107		Comeback	5.4 [101]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (WAS): -8.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.07	0.01	11	86%	0.27	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.15	0.21	0.01	0.07	17	72%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	53%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Walter Herrmann	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	13	48%	0.02	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	9	44%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.08	0.04	15	75%	0.26	2	-0.04	14	100%	0.09
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.00	6	67%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	13	54%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	6	60%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.13	0.01	0.09	7	89%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	0.01	12	36%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	8	19%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.7	28.4	15.7	22.3	1.8	36.3	132.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +6.6%

WAS +2.1%

WAS +16.5%

WAS +18.1%

WAS +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	15.3	17.4	15.5	105.6	123.0	106.4
season	16.9	15.9		104.9	103.5
opponent	15.2	15.7		111.7	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.0	18.0	17.6	13.4	15.3
WAS	17.0	17.1	19.4	16.6	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	49	49	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.15	12	-25	37	14.2	16.7	-2.47	18.1	16.6	1.43
Will Bynum	10	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.11	-4	-9	5	17.9	15.0	2.91	16.7	17.5	-0.86
Arron Afflalo	33	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-10	7	14.5	15.8	-1.37	18.3	16.9	1.39
Richard Hamilton	70	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-10	7	15.1	16.1	-1.01	17.7	16.5	1.16
Walter Herrmann	24	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.19	-15	2	-17	16.3	15.0	1.34	15.5	18.2	-2.67
Allen Iverson	71	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-4	-5	14.9	17.0	-2.11	17.6	16.7	0.90
Rodney Stuckey	67	66	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	15.6	14.5	1.08	17.2	18.1	-0.87
Tayshaun Prince	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	-2	-9	14.9	17.7	-2.78	17.1	19.5	-2.39
Antonio McDyess	45	43	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.21	-22	9	-31	17.4	13.2	4.13	17.5	17.4	0.15

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Dixon	45	45	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.05	33	-20	53	15.3	19.7	-4.45	16.8	13.8	2.96
Caron Butler	75	78	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.08	12	1	11	17.4	17.4	0.02	15.1	17.1	-2.03
Antawn Jamison	72	74	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	3	7	16.7	21.0	-4.31	15.2	15.9	-0.66
Darius Songaila	49	51	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.02	12	1	11	17.9	16.8	1.06	15.6	14.9	0.78
DeShawn Stevenson	60	62	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	6	1	16.9	18.6	-1.73	14.6	16.9	-2.26
Andray Blatche	33	34	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	8	-3	17.4	17.5	-0.07	15.1	15.4	-0.32
Dominic McGuire	23	21	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	5	3	18.7	17.0	1.65	16.6	14.9	1.71
Nick Young	32	32	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.14	-3	16	-19	19.5	16.3	3.21	12.7	16.8	-4.05
JaVale McGee	9	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.09	-8	21	-29	17.9	17.4	0.50	14.2	15.4	-1.22
Dee Brown	12	12	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.11	-9	22	-31	15.2	17.8	-2.63	15.8	15.2	0.60
Antonio Daniels	25	27	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.18	-2	15	-17	21.1	16.0	5.11	17.3	14.5	2.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 116, SEA 122	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.6%
LAC 105, DAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.82,0.71,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
CHI 77, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.98,1,1	93.1%