NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	77		Excitement	5.7 [653]		MVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): +13.0%
Golden State Warriors	89		Comeback	4.1 [567]		LVP	Ron Mercer (CHI): -17.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	17	63%	0.17	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	64%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Guyton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dragan Tarlac	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	8	39%	-0.07	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Khalid El-Amin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	10	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.03	5	14%	-0.09	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Ron Mercer	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	20	40%	-0.07	3	-0.10	7	100%	0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.06	-0.04	19	60%	0.17	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	12	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	6	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	24	40%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	6	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Chris Mills	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.04	-0.02	14	34%	-0.11	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	29.2	15.4	27.4	1.7	26.4	127.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +19.3%

GSW +7.9%

GSW +14.9%

GSW +8.0%

CHI -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	GSW	NBA	CHI	GSW	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.5	83.7	96.7	100.9
season	16.4	15.0		95.2	95.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		104.8	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.1	16.8	18.3	15.3	15.8
GSW	16.9	14.5	16.0	14.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	76	77	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.09	1	-13	14	15.1	19.1	-3.97	15.5	15.7	-0.25
Dragan Tarlac	42	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-15	18	15.8	15.8	0.01	16.7	14.5	2.25
Metta World Peace	56	58	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-12	12	15.5	16.3	-0.81	15.1	16.3	-1.18
Khalid El-Amin	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-10	8	16.2	15.3	0.86	16.2	14.8	1.42
A.J. Guyton	43	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-2	-8	15.3	16.2	-0.86	14.8	16.2	-1.42
Michael Ruffin	28	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-2	-8	15.6	15.9	-0.25	14.4	16.0	-1.63
Ron Mercer	84	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.18	-10	-2	-8	16.0	13.9	2.09	15.8	12.9	2.92
Marcus Fizer	25	24	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	5	-22	18.0	15.0	2.99	14.7	15.8	-1.16
Fred Hoiberg	57	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	3	-18	15.9	15.6	0.25	15.6	15.4	0.22

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	86	85	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.04	18	-6	24	15.7	13.3	2.34	16.0	12.7	3.32
Bob Sura	59	58	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	2	8	15.9	14.9	0.96	16.5	14.5	1.99
Vinny Del Negro	55	56	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.01	14	-2	16	15.0	16.3	-1.30	15.5	16.3	-0.81
Erick Dampier	54	53	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.23	6	6	0	16.3	14.4	1.88	16.6	14.7	1.89
Antawn Jamison	78	79	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	5	2	15.9	13.1	2.81	16.1	13.8	2.34
Adam Keefe	14	13	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	7	-2	13.1	15.9	-2.81	13.8	16.1	-2.34
Adonal Foyle	38	39	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	6	0	14.4	16.3	-1.88	14.7	16.6	-1.89
Larry Hughes	76	77	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.21	-6	18	-24	15.5	15.8	-0.35	15.2	18.9	-3.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 93, GSW 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.68,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%
DET 94, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	93.1%
BOS 89, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.66,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	93.0%