NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	2.6 [1207]		MVP	Ron Mercer (SAS): +8.1%
Denver Nuggets	74		Comeback	1.0 [569]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -7.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.05	10	59%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.02	15	68%	0.10	3	-0.03	14	71%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	5	75%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Parker	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	70%	0.07	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	53%	0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	60%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	5	50%	0.01	4	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01
Alex Garcia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	4	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	7	17%	-0.06	1	0.00	4	25%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	8	59%	0.02	3	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Jeff Trepagnier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	8	12%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	10	41%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	36%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	-0.09	11	36%	0.02	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	11	39%	-0.04	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	27.9	15.8	26.5	2.4	25.6	123.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.7%

DEN -4.3%

SAS +8.2%

SAS +1.3%

SAS +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.9	15.7	106.5	79.6	100.5
season	15.9	14.9		100.1	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.8		101.1	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	15.5	16.8	18.0	16.3
DEN	16.3	13.9	13.9	15.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	60	63	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.11	20	4	16	15.9	16.9	-1.02	15.2	14.2	1.04
Ron Mercer	40	40	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.16	20	4	16	17.9	15.0	2.88	14.7	15.0	-0.21
Robert Horry	22	23	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.25	22	2	20	17.4	15.9	1.49	15.5	14.7	0.81
Jason Hart	21	22	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	12	0	18.5	15.6	2.92	14.3	15.0	-0.72
Bruce Bowen	57	59	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	14	-4	15.3	17.8	-2.51	15.2	14.3	0.96
Devin Brown	35	34	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.17	14	10	4	17.8	15.3	2.51	14.3	15.2	-0.96
Malik Rose	37	37	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.17	9	15	-6	16.8	15.9	0.86	13.5	15.8	-2.25
Alex Garcia	14	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.11	7	17	-10	14.9	16.5	-1.67	13.5	15.1	-1.55
Hedo Turkoglu	52	53	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	20	-16	15.0	17.9	-2.88	15.0	14.7	0.21
Tony Parker	57	58	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.10	5	19	-14	15.8	17.1	-1.27	15.4	14.0	1.35
Rasho Nesterovic	58	57	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.20	-6	30	-36	16.2	16.4	-0.18	15.1	14.5	0.61
Kevin Willis	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	13.6	16.5	-2.92	15.2	14.9	0.32

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Trepagnier	28	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.18	-8	-16	8	15.0	14.8	0.24	18.6	15.2	3.33
Rodney White	18	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-23	22	12.3	15.5	-3.22	16.6	16.2	0.35
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	23	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-18	12	14.2	15.1	-0.93	17.0	16.0	0.97
Nene	43	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.03	-3	-21	18	14.2	15.4	-1.19	14.8	17.6	-2.83
Ryan Bowen	9	9	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.18	-12	-12	0	17.4	14.6	2.85	16.8	16.2	0.56
Marcus Camby	60	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-20	16	14.3	15.9	-1.61	16.0	16.8	-0.83
Chris Andersen	17	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.09	-9	-15	6	15.8	14.7	1.17	18.5	15.8	2.70
Andre Miller	76	76	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	-17	10	15.0	14.2	0.85	16.2	16.7	-0.58
Carmelo Anthony	53	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-17	10	14.3	15.6	-1.24	14.5	18.4	-3.97
Francisco Elson	33	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.26	-20	-4	-16	15.9	14.3	1.61	16.8	16.0	0.83
Earl Boykins	52	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.27	-23	-1	-22	15.2	14.5	0.64	17.6	14.6	3.09
Voshon Lenard	53	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.17	-20	-4	-16	15.8	13.7	2.10	15.6	17.1	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 114, SAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.9%
ORL 139, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
SAS 114, HOU 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%