NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	79		Excitement	5.3 [738]		MVP	Kwame Brown (WAS): +6.7%
Washington Wizards	97		Comeback	1.8 [775]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (GSW): -18.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	17	66%	0.09	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.00	0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	57%	-0.01	1	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	80%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	7	29%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.04	0.03	8	31%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.3,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.03	-0.03	16	28%	-0.03	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.03	18	53%	-0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.15	0.01	-0.07	14	30%	-0.05	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	15	44%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.16	-0.03	-0.07	8	47%	0.03	7	-0.15	3	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.3	22.8	15.0	23.5	0.7	24.4	109.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +11.0%

WAS +3.1%

WAS +31.3%

WAS +5.9%

GSW -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	WAS	NBA	GSW	WAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.1	15.7	84.0	102.1	100.5
season	16.1	15.2		100.8	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		102.4	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.2	13.4	17.7	17.6	15.4
WAS	16.2	15.4	13.7	15.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-21	24	9.0	15.4	-6.43	17.5	15.1	2.44
Calbert Cheaney	36	32	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.12	-9	-9	0	14.4	15.9	-1.49	15.5	14.9	0.63
Nick Van Exel	66	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-10	2	15.0	16.2	-1.21	15.0	15.3	-0.26
Mike Dunleavy	70	74	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	-10	2	15.1	16.2	-1.14	15.3	14.6	0.64
Brian Cardinal	13	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.01	-7	-11	4	21.5	14.4	7.17	15.2	15.1	0.04
Clifford Robinson	49	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-12	6	14.0	16.9	-2.89	15.1	15.1	-0.03
Erick Dampier	76	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-9	0	15.0	16.7	-1.68	15.6	13.2	2.43
Jason Richardson	70	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	-6	-6	15.3	15.5	-0.13	14.7	16.4	-1.74
Troy Murphy	41	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.02	-16	-2	-14	16.4	14.6	1.82	14.6	15.5	-0.93
Speedy Claxton	48	46	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.02	-18	0	-18	16.5	14.2	2.37	14.9	15.3	-0.39

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	52	55	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.07	23	-5	28	14.7	15.6	-0.89	16.1	14.3	1.80
Gilbert Arenas	74	73	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.01	16	2	14	14.9	15.9	-1.01	15.8	14.0	1.81
Etan Thomas	35	37	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.00	14	4	10	15.7	14.8	0.95	14.6	15.9	-1.27
Jared Jeffries	65	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	5	8	14.7	16.1	-1.39	15.8	14.3	1.51
Larry Hughes	76	72	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.05	10	8	2	15.1	15.1	0.08	15.2	16.0	-0.89
Steve Blake	40	41	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	12	-6	15.2	15.1	0.15	15.4	15.3	0.14
Christian Laettner	64	62	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.11	8	10	-2	14.9	15.5	-0.55	15.7	14.7	0.93
Juan Dixon	14	14	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	16	-14	15.2	15.1	0.12	15.5	15.3	0.16
Kwame Brown	26	26	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.03	-1	19	-20	16.4	14.6	1.75	12.9	16.3	-3.37
Brendan Haywood	29	26	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	19	-20	15.7	14.8	0.88	14.6	15.6	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.56,0.69,0.67,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 81, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
GSW 84, SEA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
CLE 89, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.46,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%