NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	79		Excitement	3.6 [1095]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +9.4%
Denver Nuggets	103		Comeback	3.6 [649]		LVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): -8.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	8	39%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	11	45%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	90%	0.07	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	14	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	14	37%	-0.08	2	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.01	5	83%	0.15	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	12	68%	0.10	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	60%	0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	9	57%	0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	58%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Trepagnier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.15	0.00	-0.15	8	6%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	13	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	11	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	12	38%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.6	24.4	15.7	24.3	2.4	26.2	121.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.8%

DEN +4.8%

GSW -5.4%

DEN +17.8%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.5	15.7	79.8	104.0	100.5
season	16.1	14.9		100.8	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.1	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.5	15.2	15.7	15.0	14.6
DEN	15.8	12.5	12.6	17.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-22	20	13.1	14.7	-1.63	21.7	13.6	8.10
Mickael Pietrus	17	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-22	20	13.5	14.8	-1.32	19.3	13.5	5.76
Erick Dampier	34	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.20	5	-29	34	13.5	15.1	-1.62	14.1	14.8	-0.72
Brian Cardinal	29	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.19	-9	-15	6	14.7	14.5	0.13	15.8	14.0	1.81
Mike Dunleavy	64	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	-17	10	14.0	15.6	-1.56	15.7	12.6	3.10
Nick Van Exel	56	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-18	12	14.0	15.3	-1.30	13.7	15.5	-1.75
Speedy Claxton	36	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.26	-18	-6	-12	15.4	14.1	1.29	13.5	15.1	-1.61
Calbert Cheaney	47	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.22	-19	-5	-14	15.9	13.4	2.45	12.9	16.0	-3.19
Jason Richardson	69	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.11	-16	-8	-8	14.7	14.4	0.29	14.3	15.0	-0.73
Troy Murphy	58	58	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.34	-28	4	-32	15.4	13.4	2.05	14.4	14.7	-0.35
Clifford Robinson	75	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.04	-18	-6	-12	14.4	15.0	-0.63	13.6	17.5	-3.90

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	52	52	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.01	19	5	14	13.7	15.4	-1.63	13.6	15.7	-2.08
Chris Andersen	46	46	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.32	26	-2	28	12.5	16.3	-3.74	15.5	13.7	1.83
Carmelo Anthony	64	64	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	14	-4	13.9	15.7	-1.84	14.5	14.8	-0.32
Rodney White	38	38	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.27	20	4	16	13.3	15.3	-2.01	16.6	13.3	3.31
Earl Boykins	70	69	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.33	20	4	16	14.2	15.3	-1.06	15.4	12.7	2.63
Andre Miller	42	43	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.12	4	20	-16	14.5	14.5	-0.04	13.4	15.5	-2.07
Voshon Lenard	61	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	19	-14	14.2	15.1	-0.94	14.1	15.4	-1.30
Marcus Camby	46	47	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	24	-24	14.7	14.4	0.24	13.8	15.3	-1.52
Francisco Elson	24	24	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.16	6	18	-12	16.6	13.9	2.77	15.4	14.3	1.07
Ryan Bowen	25	25	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.16	6	18	-12	17.8	13.4	4.38	14.8	14.5	0.31
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	17	16	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.06	2	22	-20	19.3	13.5	5.76	13.9	14.7	-0.82
Jeff Trepagnier	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	22	-20	19.2	14.0	5.20	13.1	14.7	-1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.4,0.41,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, SAS 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
TOR 95, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
ATL 78, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%