NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	3.9 [1001]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +9.5%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	2.4 [809]		LVP	Charles Oakley (TOR): -9.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.04	11	77%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	55%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Lang	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	5	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	19	45%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	16	51%	-0.05	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.03
Doug Christie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	8	35%	-0.05	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Charles Oakley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.03	22	59%	0.13	2	-0.03	10	100%	0.04
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.01	5	87%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	59%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	15	58%	0.08	4	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	5	20%	-0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	1	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Mario Elie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	-0.05	4	36%	-0.03	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	14	44%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	26.2	16.3	29.4	1.7	30.3	129.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.1%

SAS +8.9%

TOR -1.1%

SAS +7.4%

TOR -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAS	NBA	TOR	SAS	NBA
this game	15.0	14.3	15.2	96.9	113.1	101.7
season	15.5	15.5		101.8	101.6
opponent	15.4	14.9		95.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	17.2	14.9	13.0	15.0
SAS	13.3	15.5	13.3	15.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Lang	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-18	19	12.0	15.3	-3.31	14.0	14.3	-0.30
Alvin Williams	14	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-18	19	12.7	15.3	-2.63	15.6	14.0	1.56
Michael Stewart	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.09	3	-20	23	12.7	15.6	-2.89	15.3	14.0	1.29
John Thomas	27	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.10	-7	-10	3	15.2	14.9	0.35	15.5	13.8	1.76
Kevin Willis	29	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	-9	1	16.3	14.4	1.86	15.8	13.7	2.10
Muggsy Bogues	35	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-13	9	15.2	14.9	0.31	15.6	13.5	2.10
Vince Carter	74	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-11	5	15.0	14.8	0.18	14.3	14.2	0.04
Antonio Davis	55	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-7	-3	15.3	14.6	0.73	13.8	14.9	-1.15
Tracy McGrady	62	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-7	-3	14.3	16.2	-1.89	14.4	14.1	0.23
Doug Christie	62	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	-3	-11	15.2	14.6	0.65	13.7	15.2	-1.45
Charles Oakley	54	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.05	-15	-2	-13	15.8	14.0	1.84	13.3	15.3	-2.01
Dell Curry	46	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	-1	-15	15.4	14.6	0.88	13.0	15.5	-2.48

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	82	81	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.19	23	-6	29	14.0	15.5	-1.45	15.6	12.1	3.52
Malik Rose	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.14	21	-4	25	14.1	14.7	-0.57	15.5	13.8	1.67
Mario Elie	47	48	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	5	7	14.9	13.7	1.22	17.0	13.0	3.94
Terry Porter	60	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	8	1	13.4	15.6	-2.22	15.1	14.7	0.47
Jaren Jackson	52	52	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	5	7	14.9	13.6	1.37	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Antonio Daniels	48	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.08	12	5	7	14.6	13.9	0.72	14.2	15.7	-1.50
Avery Johnson	51	53	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	12	-7	13.9	14.6	-0.72	15.7	14.2	1.50
Felton Spencer	25	26	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	18	-19	15.4	13.9	1.56	12.5	15.9	-3.41
Jerome Kersey	29	26	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	17	-17	14.0	14.4	-0.43	12.7	15.8	-3.15
Steve Kerr	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	16	-15	14.0	14.3	-0.30	12.0	15.3	-3.31
Samaki Walker	24	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.13	-9	26	-35	14.4	14.2	0.19	14.1	15.2	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
SAC 92, MEM 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
GSW 100, LAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%