NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	101		Excitement	2.8 [1185]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +3.6%
New Orleans Hornets	90		Comeback	1.2 [456]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (NOH): -12.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	14	59%	0.06	3	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	75%	0.07	3	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Bobby Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	12	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	71%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Darius Songaila	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	7	56%	0.00	3	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	12	55%	-0.00	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	3	25%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	10	68%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.06	11	65%	0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.04	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	23	43%	-0.05	3	-0.05	7	43%	-0.03
David Wesley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.00	0.02	18	33%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	0.00	0.01	15	33%	-0.09	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	28.2	15.6	24.2	2.5	27.4	124.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +45.0%

SAC +3.7%

NOH -1.9%

SAC +0.8%

SAC +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	NOH	NBA	SAC	NOH	NBA
this game	15.2	15.9	15.7	109.8	96.8	100.5
season	14.7	16.0		106.9	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		99.4	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.1	14.9	16.0	17.1	15.2
NOH	15.7	15.8	17.4	14.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	86	87	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	0	11	15.3	14.7	0.59	15.5	22.3	-6.86
Peja Stojakovic	81	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.15	11	0	11	15.4	14.1	1.28	15.7	17.5	-1.75
Doug Christie	72	72	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	6	-1	15.4	14.4	0.98	16.1	15.1	1.00
Mike Bibby	58	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	3	5	15.8	14.3	1.51	15.6	16.4	-0.74
Vlade Divac	50	49	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	3	5	15.4	15.0	0.36	17.0	14.7	2.25
Tony Massenburg	30	31	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.10	11	0	11	13.5	16.0	-2.55	15.6	16.1	-0.50
Bobby Jackson	43	45	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.21	-2	13	-15	15.6	14.9	0.68	15.0	16.8	-1.77
Anthony Peeler	34	34	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	8	-5	14.3	15.8	-1.51	16.4	15.6	0.74
Darius Songaila	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	11	-11	14.7	15.3	-0.59	22.3	15.5	6.86

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Rooks	11	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-8	5	13.2	16.3	-3.10	11.5	15.7	-4.17
Steven Smith	18	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-6	1	15.8	15.9	-0.17	16.5	14.9	1.65
Stacey Augmon	16	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	-3	-5	15.7	15.9	-0.20	10.9	16.1	-5.12
George Lynch	64	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.28	2	-13	15	15.7	16.5	-0.83	15.7	14.2	1.53
P.J. Brown	69	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.40	6	-17	23	15.5	17.2	-1.69	16.2	12.4	3.79
Darrell Armstrong	53	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-11	11	16.2	15.5	0.68	15.0	15.6	-0.60
David West	24	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.23	-17	6	-23	17.2	15.5	1.69	12.4	16.2	-3.79
David Wesley	62	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	-3	-5	15.3	17.2	-1.97	15.6	14.5	1.01
Baron Davis	83	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-5	-1	15.8	16.5	-0.66	15.7	11.6	4.06
Jamaal Magloire	65	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	5	-21	17.2	13.0	4.22	15.3	15.1	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, DET 72	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
SAS 86, MIA 70	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
PHI 119, MIL 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%