NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	3.2 [1151]		MVP	Rasho Nesterovic (SAS): +6.0%
Miami Heat	70		Comeback	1.2 [482]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -12.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	14	68%	0.08	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	18	49%	0.02	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Robert Horry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	55%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	42%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Jason Hart	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	15	47%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	9	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	17	42%	-0.05	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	0.02	14	50%	-0.03	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.01	11	25%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	494.1	2.0	28.3	14.8	27.4	1.8	29.5	598.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.2%

SAS +2.4%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +9.8%

SAS +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.9	15.7	95.6	78.7	100.5
season	15.9	16.2		100.1	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.8	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.6	13.9	17.3	15.5	15.3
MIA	18.1	16.8	17.0	15.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	74	73	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.03	15	1	14	15.4	14.8	0.57	16.8	17.2	-0.34
Manu Ginobili	66	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.09	18	-2	20	14.7	16.8	-2.06	16.8	17.1	-0.29
Tony Parker	67	65	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	9	-2	15.1	15.8	-0.68	17.5	15.2	2.27
Hedo Turkoglu	40	40	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	7	2	15.5	15.1	0.35	16.9	16.9	-0.06
Bruce Bowen	62	63	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.06	8	8	0	15.4	15.0	0.40	16.5	17.9	-1.43
Rasho Nesterovic	71	72	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	7	2	14.8	17.0	-2.18	17.0	16.4	0.69
Robert Horry	34	31	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	7	2	16.0	14.8	1.21	17.3	16.7	0.53
Jason Hart	23	24	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.16	9	7	2	15.8	15.1	0.68	15.2	17.5	-2.27
Ron Mercer	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	20	-24	16.8	15.0	1.83	18.2	16.7	1.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bimbo Coles	12	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-12	8	16.8	16.9	-0.09	18.6	14.8	3.83
Samaki Walker	24	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-15	14	16.2	17.2	-0.90	18.2	14.3	3.90
John Wallace	6	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-11	6	24.2	16.4	7.78	10.0	15.7	-5.72
Udonis Haslem	23	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.05	-4	-12	8	17.7	16.6	1.06	13.6	15.9	-2.24
Rafer Alston	54	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-15	14	16.5	17.5	-1.00	14.8	16.2	-1.43
Dwyane Wade	66	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	-7	-2	16.3	18.8	-2.53	15.6	14.4	1.17
Brian Grant	64	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	-3	-10	17.0	16.6	0.43	14.5	17.2	-2.66
Loren Woods	32	33	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.10	-15	-1	-14	18.0	16.3	1.65	15.8	15.0	0.81
Lamar Odom	85	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.08	-13	-3	-10	16.6	24.5	-7.95	15.6	8.0	7.62
Eddie Jones	79	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	-1	-14	17.0	16.1	0.91	15.1	16.8	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, NOH 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
LAL 93, DET 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
DEN 99, LAC 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%