NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	2.8 [1159]		MVP	Tony Battie (DEN): +7.3%
Los Angeles Clippers	81		Comeback	1.3 [151]		LVP	Lamond Murray (LAC): -12.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	65%	0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	8	75%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.03	8	77%	0.06	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.01
Dean Garrett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	8	67%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	13	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01
Harold Ellis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Joe Wolf	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	9	59%	0.00	3	-0.03	14	93%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	8	22%	-0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stojko Vrankovic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
James Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Closs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	11	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	0.00
Pooh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	8	59%	0.02	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	10	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	0.06	6	69%	-0.04	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	11	54%	0.02	5	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Lamond Murray	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.03	9	22%	-0.06	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	27.4	15.7	24.1	1.8	35.0	129.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.0%

DEN +3.7%

DEN +10.0%

DEN +9.8%

LAC -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	17.6	16.5	15.6	117.9	95.3	102.5
season	16.2	15.5		96.7	101.0
opponent	15.1	15.2		109.2	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.3	15.8	18.6	20.5	17.6
LAC	15.7	15.5	16.5	18.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	59	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	10	-2	18.4	15.7	2.72	16.3	16.8	-0.56
Dean Garrett	57	57	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	11	-4	18.6	15.6	3.00	16.5	16.3	0.20
Johnny Newman	48	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.09	14	4	10	16.9	18.6	-1.72	16.7	16.2	0.48
Bobby Jackson	54	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	13	-8	18.6	15.8	2.85	16.7	16.1	0.57
Anthony Goldwire	51	53	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.03	11	7	4	17.2	18.3	-1.11	15.9	17.3	-1.42
Tony Battie	35	38	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	11	-4	18.2	17.2	0.93	17.4	15.7	1.65
Danny Fortson	42	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.09	10	8	2	17.1	18.1	-0.98	15.8	17.1	-1.33
Joe Wolf	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.15	11	7	4	15.1	18.9	-3.79	16.3	16.5	-0.20
Harold Ellis	25	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	8	2	15.7	18.4	-2.72	16.8	16.3	0.56

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Collins	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-19	20	15.7	16.5	-0.85	20.5	17.4	3.09
Stojko Vrankovic	28	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-14	10	17.4	16.0	1.34	19.1	16.9	2.21
James Robinson	30	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-15	12	16.3	16.5	-0.25	16.3	18.3	-1.96
Pooh Richardson	26	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	-11	4	17.3	16.1	1.28	15.4	18.5	-3.16
Keith Closs	18	18	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	-10	2	14.6	17.0	-2.41	17.2	17.8	-0.59
Maurice Taylor	36	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-15	12	16.9	16.1	0.84	17.9	17.4	0.45
Lorenzen Wright	47	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-11	4	15.9	17.1	-1.22	16.2	19.2	-2.99
Darrick Martin	53	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-10	2	16.8	15.9	0.84	19.0	15.2	3.78
Lamond Murray	54	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.16	-16	-2	-14	16.3	16.7	-0.45	17.1	18.5	-1.35
Rodney Rogers	66	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.11	-19	1	-20	16.9	14.8	2.08	17.8	17.1	0.70
Eric Piatkowski	61	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.02	-16	-2	-14	15.9	17.9	-2.03	18.2	16.0	2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, SAS 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
MIA 98, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
LAL 119, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%