NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	100		Excitement	8.3 [186]		MVP	Shane Battier (MEM): +12.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	105		Comeback	3.6 [623]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -16.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	62%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.06	-0.04	0.01	8	65%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Vlade Divac	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	48%	-0.00	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.02	18	61%	0.06	4	-0.12	8	100%	0.08
Brad Miller	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	11	61%	0.01	4	-0.13	11	73%	-0.06
Anthony Peeler	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	7	14%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	14	33%	-0.15	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	-0.00	8	57%	0.13	0	0.00	7	100%	0.07
James Posey	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	11	64%	0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	8	55%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	12	42%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	64%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	0.03	8	50%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	10	42%	-0.13	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.10
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	18	50%	-0.02	5	-0.14	8	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	28.0	15.0	27.8	1.8	39.0	141.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +41.9%

SAC -18.6%

MEM +29.9%

MEM +3.1%

SAC -6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MEM	NBA	SAC	MEM	NBA
this game	14.4	15.3	15.7	103.1	108.2	100.5
season	14.7	15.3		106.9	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		100.5	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.2	15.3	11.8	16.4	14.4
MEM	16.5	12.9	16.8	14.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	15	15	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-8	11	15.0	14.3	0.67	17.2	14.9	2.30
Doug Christie	62	63	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.26	10	-15	25	12.8	17.3	-4.55	16.2	13.4	2.80
Vlade Divac	58	58	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-4	3	13.4	16.0	-2.58	15.1	15.4	-0.30
Gerald Wallace	10	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	1	-7	14.1	14.5	-0.37	8.5	15.9	-7.37
Mike Bibby	66	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-4	3	13.1	17.2	-4.06	14.7	16.4	-1.70
Bobby Jackson	36	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.14	-5	0	-5	15.7	13.7	2.09	14.6	15.7	-1.07
Peja Stojakovic	87	88	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.39	1	-6	7	14.5	14.1	0.37	15.9	9.4	6.41
Tony Massenburg	35	34	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	-2	-1	17.5	12.7	4.73	17.3	14.2	3.09
Anthony Peeler	35	34	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.10	-15	10	-25	17.3	12.8	4.55	13.4	16.2	-2.80
Brad Miller	81	82	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.34	-8	3	-11	14.2	15.4	-1.20	14.9	17.2	-2.30

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	63	60	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-10	25	15.7	14.5	1.21	15.6	12.5	3.06
Lorenzen Wright	52	49	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-11	27	16.1	14.3	1.81	16.2	12.6	3.66
Earl Watson	88	87	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.43	5	0	5	15.3	15.0	0.28	14.2	16.4	-2.19
Pau Gasol	68	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.24	6	-1	7	15.1	15.7	-0.57	13.7	16.3	-2.60
Shane Battier	52	54	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.37	-6	11	-17	15.0	15.6	-0.60	13.1	16.2	-3.11
Bonzi Wells	51	52	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	6	-7	12.6	18.2	-5.55	14.7	14.1	0.56
Bo Outlaw	29	28	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	6	-7	15.7	15.1	0.57	16.3	13.7	2.60
Stromile Swift	40	44	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.20	-10	15	-25	15.8	14.9	0.88	13.0	15.6	-2.54
Mike Miller	42	42	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.17	1	4	-3	16.6	14.3	2.32	14.0	14.7	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.64,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, WAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.7,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.71,0.83,0.9,1	92.2%
HOU 110, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	92.0%
ATL 92, NYK 96	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.41,0.41,0.29,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.47,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.76,0.64,0.95,0.95,1	91.7%