NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	80		Excitement	7.0 [399]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +9.1%
Washington Wizards	69		Comeback	2.3 [248]		LVP	Jarvis Hayes (WAS): -32.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.05	0.03	16	71%	0.22	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.03
Tremaine Fowlkes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	15	58%	0.08	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.04
Mehmet Okur	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	7	28%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	4	10%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	6	36%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.01	16	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	10	39%	0.01	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	6	36%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	13	54%	0.04	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.04	0.07	6	29%	-0.15	2	-0.06	2	100%	-0.05
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.14,-0.27,-0.27,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.16	-0.16	-0.00	11	25%	-0.21	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	480.7	2.5	28.5	15.8	26.4	2.4	31.2	587.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +11.6%

DET +27.6%

DET +17.5%

WAS -5.4%

WAS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	17.3	16.4	15.7	93.0	81.2	100.5
season	16.2	15.2		99.2	96.4
opponent	15.3	16.0		102.4	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.3	15.7	14.3	21.0	17.3
WAS	16.0	17.8	17.0	14.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	64	64	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.23	13	-2	15	17.8	15.6	2.18	16.1	17.3	-1.21
Chauncey Billups	71	73	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.11	13	-2	15	17.5	16.0	1.52	16.5	15.8	0.69
Tayshaun Prince	70	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	4	3	17.8	14.7	3.16	15.8	18.9	-3.10
Richard Hamilton	72	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	5	1	17.8	14.4	3.38	16.4	16.6	-0.24
Elden Campbell	35	34	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	0	11	15.5	18.5	-2.94	17.9	15.5	2.43
Tremaine Fowlkes	21	18	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	7	-3	14.5	18.2	-3.68	17.9	16.0	1.86
Bob Sura	24	21	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	8	-5	15.5	17.9	-2.38	16.9	16.3	0.58
Mehmet Okur	39	38	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	11	-11	18.4	16.3	2.07	15.7	17.0	-1.34
Corliss Williamson	34	34	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	13	-15	16.7	17.6	-0.91	16.4	16.5	-0.12

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	17	16	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-13	15	18.4	15.9	2.41	14.9	17.8	-2.85
Mitchell Butler	11	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-7	3	21.0	15.7	5.26	12.5	17.9	-5.38
Jared Jeffries	48	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.20	4	-15	19	16.3	16.6	-0.30	16.2	18.6	-2.40
Juan Dixon	36	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-9	7	16.4	16.4	-0.06	16.3	18.0	-1.68
Brendan Haywood	64	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-9	7	16.5	16.2	0.31	17.4	16.9	0.47
Chris Whitney	36	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-4	-3	17.2	15.9	1.29	16.4	17.8	-1.40
Kwame Brown	24	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	5	-21	17.2	16.1	1.15	17.1	17.3	-0.19
Larry Hughes	61	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-5	-1	16.2	16.9	-0.63	17.9	15.8	2.05
Christian Laettner	34	35	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-3	-5	15.9	16.8	-0.90	18.6	16.4	2.22
Jarvis Hayes	74	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-4	-3	15.7	21.0	-5.26	17.9	12.5	5.38
Steve Blake	20	23	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	-2	-7	14.0	17.2	-3.10	20.1	16.2	3.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 96, UTA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.06,0,0	93.6%
WAS 100, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.02,0	93.0%
GSW 117, ORL 108	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0	92.9%