NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	5.6 [685]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +9.2%
Utah Jazz	99		Comeback	2.4 [694]		LVP	Toni Kukoc (MIL): -20.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	16	65%	0.14	2	-0.05	11	100%	0.07
Tim Thomas	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	17	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Joe Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	75%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	64%	0.06	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Daniel Santiago	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	2	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Desmond Mason	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	10	45%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.07	0.02	9	45%	-0.06	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raul Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	10	75%	0.21	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	91%	0.20	6	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.04	-0.06	15	47%	0.06	1	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Curtis Borchardt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	6	44%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	538.3	2.5	34.0	15.6	34.1	1.6	34.5	660.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +31.2%

MIL -0.8%

UTA +15.3%

UTA +3.3%

UTA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	UTA	NBA	MIL	UTA	NBA
this game	14.7	17.1	15.7	100.0	108.8	100.5
season	15.3	17.2		103.6	99.4
opponent	15.2	15.5		100.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.8	15.7	14.4	12.5	14.7
UTA	19.0	16.3	16.3	16.8	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	12	13	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-14	19	16.9	14.4	2.51	17.0	17.1	-0.08
Daniel Santiago	39	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-8	7	16.3	13.5	2.80	18.0	16.3	1.68
Erick Strickland	20	20	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-11	13	12.4	15.4	-2.95	17.0	17.1	-0.02
Damon Jones	38	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-10	11	14.5	14.9	-0.42	16.2	17.7	-1.60
Desmond Mason	38	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	-6	3	14.6	14.8	-0.20	16.9	17.2	-0.34
Tim Thomas	53	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-5	1	15.4	13.8	1.54	17.7	16.1	1.64
Joe Smith	68	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	-3	-3	14.0	16.9	-2.86	17.5	15.8	1.73
Michael Redd	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.21	-6	-3	-3	14.7	15.0	-0.29	16.9	18.2	-1.27
Toni Kukoc	53	54	-0.56	0.07	-0.63	-0.24	-11	2	-13	14.2	15.5	-1.26	16.2	18.3	-2.12
T.J. Ford	50	50	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	0.02	-22	13	-35	15.1	14.3	0.71	17.1	17.0	0.03

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	76	76	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.15	20	-11	31	17.5	14.8	2.71	14.5	16.1	-1.57
Matt Harpring	79	77	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.19	17	-8	25	16.9	17.8	-0.88	14.4	16.7	-2.28
Sasha Pavlovic	35	35	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	2	5	16.0	17.7	-1.69	14.7	14.8	-0.14
Curtis Borchardt	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.24	3	6	-3	16.6	18.2	-1.56	14.1	16.6	-2.56
Carlos Arroyo	30	31	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	-2	13	18.6	16.3	2.34	16.0	14.1	1.87
Raul Lopez	61	59	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	11	-13	16.3	18.6	-2.34	14.1	16.0	-1.87
Greg Ostertag	25	24	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.00	6	3	3	18.2	16.6	1.56	16.6	14.1	2.56
DeShawn Stevenson	36	35	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.06	7	2	5	18.6	16.0	2.60	15.9	14.0	1.96
Jarron Collins	12	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	17	-25	15.2	17.3	-2.09	18.5	14.2	4.23
Raja Bell	35	36	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.20	-16	25	-41	16.4	17.5	-1.08	13.7	15.4	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.74,0.74,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 86, POR 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.6,0.68,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.6%
NOP 89, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.56,0.52,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	92.2%
DAL 92, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.87,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,1	92.0%