NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	92		Excitement	5.8 [672]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +26.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	97		Comeback	2.0 [729]		LVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): -9.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27	0.25	0.05	0.04	13	94%	0.33	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	53%	0.10	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	5	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Peja Stojakovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	-0.00	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.05	0.03	21	51%	0.02	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.02
Brendan Haywood	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	60%	0.01	2	-0.06	6	33%	-0.07
Tyson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	9	44%	0.05	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.10	-0.02	10	70%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21	0.21	0.22	0.02	0.03	12	83%	0.21	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	5	58%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.01	-0.06	6	50%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	21	45%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	13	55%	0.07	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	3.0	28.0	18.8	29.2	3.7	42.2	152.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +6.9%

POR +16.8%

POR +6.6%

POR +15.9%

POR +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	16.5	16.6	15.5	105.7	111.5	105.7
season	15.7	16.5		108.5	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.6	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.1	17.0	18.2	15.6	16.5
POR	16.9	17.2	13.9	18.7	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	56	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-9	13	15.5	18.3	-2.81	17.3	15.5	1.73
Tyson Chandler	26	29	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	-3	1	18.0	15.8	2.16	15.9	17.0	-1.03
DeShawn Stevenson	8	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	3	-11	16.4	16.5	-0.12	17.2	16.6	0.69
Jason Kidd	69	69	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-4	3	16.0	18.4	-2.40	17.1	14.8	2.25
Jason Terry	72	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.50	7	-12	19	16.4	16.7	-0.22	16.7	16.1	0.65
Dirk Nowitzki	73	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-4	3	16.9	14.1	2.79	16.5	17.2	-0.71
Peja Stojakovic	42	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	1	-7	15.8	17.1	-1.26	15.5	17.7	-2.26
Jose Juan Barea	39	39	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-3	1	16.4	16.5	-0.08	16.8	16.5	0.27
Shawn Marion	50	48	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.00	-16	11	-27	17.5	15.1	2.39	16.4	16.8	-0.41

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	43	45	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	-2	9	15.8	17.4	-1.55	16.1	16.9	-0.86
Chris Johnson	11	11	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	-2	9	13.8	17.0	-3.21	17.8	16.3	1.53
Gerald Wallace	77	76	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.38	-1	6	-7	16.6	17.0	-0.43	16.4	17.1	-0.70
Wesley Matthews	65	64	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	0	5	17.1	15.2	1.93	16.9	15.4	1.48
Andre Miller	61	59	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	-1	7	17.2	15.3	1.82	16.7	16.0	0.71
Rudy Fernandez	20	21	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	3	-1	14.8	17.1	-2.30	15.8	16.7	-0.95
Nicolas Batum	45	45	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.24	-1	6	-7	15.4	18.0	-2.62	16.9	16.0	0.84
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	77	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	5	-5	16.9	14.8	2.06	16.7	15.1	1.56
Marcus Camby	36	37	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.18	0	5	-5	18.8	15.1	3.68	15.3	17.4	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.87,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
LAC 77, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
SEA 98, PHI 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.67,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%