NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	101		Excitement	8.3 [191]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +32.6%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	4.7 [484]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -32.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.33	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.33	0.33	0.06	0.06	30	81%	0.41	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Shammond Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Drew Gooden	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	10	45%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	7	31%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Steven Hunter	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	43%	-0.07	1	-0.01	6	33%	-0.07
Zaza Pachulia	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	11	27%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	9	54%	-0.01	5	-0.20	6	67%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.01	19	61%	0.19	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.08	-0.00	18	56%	0.11	3	-0.06	12	83%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	0.01	4	74%	0.07	2	-0.04	11	73%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	57%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.22	-0.13	-0.02	23	33%	-0.16	4	-0.16	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	3.4	30.4	16.8	32.3	2.5	39.0	150.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -14.8%

DEN +23.4%

DEN +17.3%

DEN +17.0%

DEN +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.6	14.3	15.7	98.1	102.9	100.5
season	15.7	14.9		100.9	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.4		101.1	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	13.5	14.7	13.4	13.6
DEN	13.2	13.7	13.0	17.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shammond Williams	19	17	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.00	6	-11	17	12.9	13.8	-0.85	12.8	14.6	-1.79
Drew Gooden	52	54	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.07	4	-9	13	13.3	14.0	-0.67	13.6	15.1	-1.41
Zaza Pachulia	28	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-6	7	14.4	13.4	0.98	13.4	14.7	-1.27
Andrew DeClercq	17	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-3	1	13.8	13.6	0.22	14.6	14.3	0.29
Reece Gaines	10	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-2	-1	11.0	13.9	-2.92	15.2	14.2	1.05
Donnell Harvey	32	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	2	-9	14.9	13.1	1.84	13.0	15.0	-2.01
Tyronn Lue	87	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-4	3	13.3	15.2	-1.91	14.6	13.2	1.40
Tracy McGrady	89	87	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-4	3	13.5	14.6	-1.16	14.6	12.7	1.86
Juwan Howard	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	1	-7	13.4	14.4	-0.98	14.7	13.4	1.27
Steven Hunter	54	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	4	-13	14.0	13.2	0.76	14.6	14.0	0.66
Keith Bogans	52	54	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.33	-7	2	-9	14.3	13.0	1.31	14.9	13.7	1.16

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	75	75	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	-1	7	15.1	12.3	2.79	13.2	14.7	-1.47
Marcus Camby	64	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	-8	21	15.0	13.3	1.71	13.4	14.1	-0.69
Earl Boykins	66	65	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	14.5	14.0	0.54	13.4	14.0	-0.61
Andre Miller	67	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	-1	7	15.0	13.0	1.99	13.4	14.2	-0.81
Carmelo Anthony	87	88	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.41	-7	12	-19	14.2	14.9	-0.66	13.5	14.3	-0.73
Ryan Bowen	9	8	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	-2	9	15.8	14.2	1.60	15.0	13.5	1.47
Jon Barry	51	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	-1	7	14.1	14.5	-0.40	13.5	13.8	-0.36
Voshon Lenard	29	29	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	6	-7	12.5	15.0	-2.56	15.1	13.1	1.99
Chris Andersen	24	25	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	6	-7	11.5	15.2	-3.73	14.8	13.3	1.53
Francisco Elson	33	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.20	-8	13	-21	13.5	14.7	-1.27	13.8	13.6	0.20
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	5	-5	14.2	14.3	-0.13	15.1	13.5	1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.55,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.77,0.59,0.6,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.47,0.57,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	92.7%
CHH 93, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.92,0.94,0.83,1	92.1%
LAC 73, IND 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.89,0.95,0.97,1,1	92.0%