NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	4.7 [869]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +9.8%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	1.1 [506]		LVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): -22.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.03	-0.01	13	67%	0.14	2	-0.04	14	86%	0.03
Corliss Williamson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.05	15	67%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	12	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tremaine Fowlkes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Mehmet Okur	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	5	21%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	8	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.04	19	49%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	55%	0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	6	31%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	9	20%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	15	33%	-0.14	6	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	3.4	33.3	16.7	30.2	2.6	29.0	137.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +42.1%

DET +13.2%

MIA -2.2%

MIA -4.1%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	17.0	15.7	109.4	93.1	100.5
season	16.2	16.2		99.2	99.3
opponent	15.9	16.0		98.8	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.0	14.3	13.8	19.5	16.4
MIA	18.9	18.5	15.5	15.7	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	50	50	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.03	20	-8	28	16.9	15.7	1.23	18.0	15.8	2.15
Richard Hamilton	55	55	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.08	21	-9	30	17.6	14.3	3.30	17.6	16.0	1.61
Tayshaun Prince	63	65	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-3	18	17.0	14.9	2.06	17.0	17.3	-0.30
Ben Wallace	57	60	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.05	18	-6	24	17.8	13.7	4.11	18.1	14.8	3.29
Chauncey Billups	66	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-2	16	16.4	16.5	-0.12	17.1	16.7	0.48
Zeljko Rebraca	20	20	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	9	-6	13.5	17.3	-3.77	16.2	17.3	-1.10
Bob Sura	10	10	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	10	-8	16.7	16.4	0.30	20.9	16.5	4.35
Corliss Williamson	28	28	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	16	-20	14.2	17.5	-3.26	16.1	17.5	-1.44
Tremaine Fowlkes	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	14.7	16.5	-1.83	8.7	17.3	-8.68
Darko Milicic	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	14.7	16.5	-1.83	8.7	17.3	-8.68
Chucky Atkins	31	32	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.25	-11	23	-34	14.9	17.3	-2.46	16.1	17.6	-1.51
Mehmet Okur	39	40	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.27	-12	24	-36	15.8	16.9	-1.09	15.7	18.2	-2.54

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bimbo Coles	12	12	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.14	8	-20	28	13.8	17.6	-3.73	17.3	16.3	1.05
John Wallace	11	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-14	16	17.6	17.0	0.68	17.2	16.3	0.95
Loren Woods	17	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.13	4	-16	20	19.8	16.4	3.38	17.9	16.0	1.91
Malik Allen	34	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-17	22	16.8	17.2	-0.41	18.0	15.4	2.56
Rafer Alston	57	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-15	18	15.6	19.7	-4.05	16.6	16.2	0.35
Dwyane Wade	42	42	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.09	-17	5	-22	18.5	15.7	2.72	15.5	17.3	-1.80
Udonis Haslem	56	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.06	-18	6	-24	17.8	15.7	2.08	15.5	18.1	-2.57
Brian Grant	70	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.02	-16	4	-20	16.4	19.8	-3.38	16.0	17.9	-1.91
Lamar Odom	73	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	1	-14	16.5	19.9	-3.35	16.3	17.2	-0.93
Eddie Jones	63	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.02	-18	6	-24	18.0	14.6	3.40	16.8	15.5	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, MEM 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.03,0,0	95.5%
WAS 112, CHI 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	95.1%
WAS 101, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.9%