NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	87		Excitement	7.0 [407]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +18.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.1 [932]		LVP	Jacque Vaughn (ORL): -16.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	7	88%	0.16	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Pat Burke	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	10	70%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	4	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	12	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Jeryl Sasser	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	4	40%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.13,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	0.00	-0.01	11	33%	-0.01	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.03
Jacque Vaughn	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.11	0.01	7	43%	-0.06	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.08	-0.01	16	62%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	13	73%	0.18	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	19	47%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	6	31%	-0.05	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	11	46%	0.03	6	-0.18	4	100%	0.01
Marcus Haislip	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	7	44%	-0.05	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.7	26.2	15.8	21.5	2.4	28.5	121.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.4%

MIL +2.3%

MIL +12.8%

MIL +10.2%

ORL -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.5	15.5	93.5	97.9	101.6
season	14.6	15.4		102.7	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.8		106.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.7	16.8	16.6	17.0	16.2
MIL	13.6	13.2	14.7	16.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	22	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-9	12	17.2	15.9	1.29	15.6	14.1	1.53
Drew Gooden	64	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.17	0	-6	6	16.3	16.0	0.33	14.2	15.1	-0.92
Steven Hunter	33	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-5	4	16.3	16.1	0.12	13.8	14.9	-1.09
Chris Whitney	40	42	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.33	5	-11	16	16.0	16.3	-0.25	15.7	13.5	2.24
Gordan Giricek	46	47	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	16.4	16.0	0.48	13.7	15.2	-1.42
Pat Burke	39	40	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	2	-10	15.2	16.9	-1.75	14.1	14.7	-0.67
Shawn Kemp	53	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-5	4	16.3	16.0	0.30	14.3	14.7	-0.45
Jeryl Sasser	47	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-5	4	16.0	16.4	-0.48	15.2	13.7	1.42
Darrell Armstrong	53	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	5	-16	16.3	16.0	0.25	13.5	15.7	-2.24
Jacque Vaughn	68	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.24	-11	5	-16	16.2	16.1	0.10	15.1	12.8	2.31

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	73	72	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.25	12	-6	18	14.2	15.3	-1.11	16.2	16.0	0.25
Michael Redd	82	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	0	6	14.4	15.1	-0.71	16.1	16.7	-0.61
Desmond Mason	74	71	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-3	12	14.8	13.1	1.69	15.8	17.5	-1.71
Toni Kukoc	53	51	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	6	-6	14.2	14.8	-0.66	16.3	16.1	0.14
Dan Gadzuric	36	35	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	6	-6	16.2	13.4	2.79	16.7	15.9	0.88
Gary Payton	57	57	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	0	6	14.5	14.4	0.07	16.4	15.9	0.54
Joel Przybilla	47	46	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.06	6	0	6	13.8	15.1	-1.25	15.8	16.6	-0.73
Ervin Johnson	10	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	8	-10	13.9	14.5	-0.63	15.9	16.2	-0.33
Marcus Haislip	43	44	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.18	-7	13	-20	14.1	14.7	-0.59	16.6	15.8	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.97,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 72, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.66,0.66,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.91,0.76,0.85,0.95,0.98,1	93.7%
MIN 92, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.7,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.92,0.91,0.99,1	93.5%
UTA 103, MIN 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.98,1,1	93.3%