NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	103		Excitement	7.4 [321]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIN): +26.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	110		Comeback	1.1 [363]		LVP	Jeff Hornacek (UTA): -19.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adam Keefe	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.05	0.02	9	74%	0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Greg Foster	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	80%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	87%	0.06	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Chris Morris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	13	52%	0.04	2	-0.08	5	60%	0.05
Greg Ostertag	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Karl Malone	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	25	61%	0.20	6	-0.25	11	64%	-0.03
Shandon Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Bryon Russell	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	6	17%	-0.10	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Hornacek	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.06	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.18	0.10	0.01	9	91%	0.27	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.11	-0.01	17	75%	0.29	4	-0.06	6	67%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.04	0.05	-0.12	15	63%	0.20	6	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	14	44%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bill Curley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	14	57%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	7	25%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	24.7	16.4	26.4	2.7	36.2	132.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +49.1%

UTA -18.4%

UTA -17.1%

MIN +39.6%

UTA -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIN	NBA	UTA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.4	15.1	15.6	108.4	117.0	102.5
season	15.9	14.8		108.1	105.3
opponent	15.7	15.9		104.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.0	14.0	15.1	15.5	15.4
MIN	14.3	14.2	15.5	16.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Morris	13	13	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-9	11	14.6	15.5	-0.87	16.8	14.8	2.02
Greg Foster	41	41	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.03	1	-8	9	16.7	14.3	2.40	14.3	15.7	-1.36
Howard Eisley	37	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.10	3	-10	13	16.1	14.9	1.12	17.1	13.9	3.16
Shandon Anderson	25	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.07	2	-9	11	16.2	15.1	1.13	16.9	14.5	2.42
Greg Ostertag	27	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-6	5	13.2	16.2	-3.00	14.6	15.3	-0.73
Adam Keefe	69	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-3	-1	15.9	14.0	1.88	15.4	14.2	1.18
Jeff Hornacek	70	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	2	-11	15.1	16.2	-1.13	14.5	16.9	-2.42
John Stockton	58	58	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	3	-13	14.9	16.1	-1.12	13.9	17.1	-3.16
Bryon Russell	50	50	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	1	-9	14.4	16.4	-1.96	15.6	14.5	1.10
Karl Malone	85	83	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	4	-15	15.6	13.1	2.54	14.8	17.4	-2.56

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	82	83	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-7	21	14.8	17.2	-2.36	15.7	13.3	2.33
Stephon Marbury	78	77	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-2	11	15.3	14.1	1.18	15.3	15.6	-0.30
Sam Mitchell	84	85	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	0	7	15.1	15.3	-0.22	15.2	16.9	-1.71
Anthony Peeler	73	75	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	1	5	14.9	15.9	-0.97	15.5	14.9	0.53
Terry Porter	61	62	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	2	3	15.7	14.1	1.56	15.0	16.1	-1.06
Bill Curley	25	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	9	-11	16.0	14.8	1.22	17.1	14.8	2.35
Cherokee Parks	51	53	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.06	3	4	-1	14.2	16.2	-2.08	15.0	15.8	-0.75
Reggie Jordan	16	16	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.01	-7	14	-21	16.3	14.9	1.45	14.4	15.6	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 84, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.72,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.94,0.98,1,1	95.7%
MIN 92, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.7,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.92,0.91,0.99,1	93.3%
ORL 87, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.97,0.9,1	93.3%