NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	95		Excitement	6.5 [493]		MVP	J.R. Bremer (BOS): +9.8%
Boston Celtics	104		Comeback	1.1 [1125]		LVP	Smush Parker (CLE): -14.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mihm	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	6	83%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	22	61%	0.17	3	-0.11	7	71%	-0.02
Jumaine Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.11	-0.04	0.03	15	70%	0.13	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	87%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
DeSagana Diop	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	-0.05	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	12	46%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	9	45%	-0.05	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Smush Parker	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	4	11%	-0.06	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Bremer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.08	0.02	6	78%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	8	61%	0.10	1	-0.03	12	67%	-0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	12	46%	0.01	2	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Grant Long	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	86%	0.09	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.02
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	21	54%	0.03	3	-0.09	8	50%	-0.05
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	8	43%	-0.05	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.7	27.8	14.8	29.5	2.0	33.3	135.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +0.5%

BOS +8.4%

BOS +6.2%

BOS +37.8%

CLE -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	BOS	NBA	CLE	BOS	NBA
this game	15.0	14.7	15.5	96.9	108.3	101.6
season	15.1	15.6		94.6	99.3
opponent	15.5	14.9		99.9	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.1	14.9	14.8	15.2	15.0
BOS	13.0	16.4	15.2	14.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Smush Parker	36	36	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-14	19	13.3	16.0	-2.73	15.5	14.1	1.35
Chris Mihm	36	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.19	6	-15	21	15.5	14.8	0.70	16.5	13.5	2.95
DeSagana Diop	10	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.15	-10	1	-11	15.6	15.0	0.63	13.9	14.7	-0.84
Jumaine Jones	71	70	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.31	5	-14	19	14.7	15.9	-1.18	15.0	13.7	1.27
Carlos Boozer	63	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	3	-15	14.5	16.0	-1.55	13.7	16.2	-2.46
Ricky Davis	92	89	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-3	-3	14.9	16.3	-1.39	14.6	15.0	-0.37
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	54	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-4	-1	15.3	14.7	0.55	14.3	15.1	-0.83
Darius Miles	66	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	5	-19	15.5	14.1	1.44	14.6	14.8	-0.26
Milt Palacio	62	60	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	5	-19	16.0	13.3	2.73	14.1	15.5	-1.35

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	59	60	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.21	13	-4	17	14.8	14.4	0.41	15.9	13.6	2.29
Paul Pierce	91	92	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.15	15	-6	21	14.3	20.8	-6.48	15.4	9.2	6.25
J.R. Bremer	68	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	0	9	14.0	16.4	-2.40	15.2	14.5	0.74
Antoine Walker	86	87	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.30	0	9	-9	14.9	12.3	2.63	14.9	15.8	-0.89
Walter McCarty	49	49	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.19	15	-6	21	13.7	15.7	-2.05	15.1	15.0	0.10
Mark Blount	47	49	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.42	-6	15	-21	15.7	13.7	2.05	15.0	15.1	-0.10
Grant Long	10	11	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.06	9	0	9	12.3	14.9	-2.63	15.8	14.9	0.89
Bimbo Coles	28	29	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	9	-9	16.4	14.0	2.40	14.1	15.4	-1.32
Kedrick Brown	42	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.10	-10	19	-29	15.2	14.3	0.91	13.3	16.4	-3.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.77,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.77,0.78,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 97, HOU 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.51,0.61,0.65,0.77,0.69,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.89,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.0%
WAS 109, DET 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1	92.7%
NOH 83, SAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1	92.6%