NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	80		Excitement	4.6 [881]		MVP	Juwan Howard (DEN): +7.2%
Denver Nuggets	90		Comeback	2.4 [231]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -27.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Long	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.00	-0.06	2	50%	0.01	1	0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Bremer	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	12	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Eric Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	7	28%	-0.07	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	18	50%	-0.02	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.27	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.28,-0.27,-0.27	-0.18	-0.07	0.03	25	50%	-0.09	9	-0.18	12	100%	0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	18	63%	0.10	2	-0.03	7	71%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	80%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Rodney White	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	6	64%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	7	60%	0.04	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Savovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	2	33%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.05
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	11	36%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.16	-0.00	-0.09	5	7%	-0.05	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	29.1	16.4	27.3	1.8	37.3	136.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.5%

BOS -9.3%

DEN +4.4%

BOS -10.6%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	14.6	15.5	83.3	91.8	101.6
season	15.6	15.7		99.3	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.5		99.4	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.5	16.0	16.0	13.0	15.1
DEN	17.2	12.8	13.4	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	14	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-7	4	16.5	14.8	1.66	12.2	15.0	-2.85
Bimbo Coles	25	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-7	4	12.9	15.8	-2.93	15.8	14.2	1.66
Grant Long	34	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-8	6	13.6	15.9	-2.31	16.7	13.2	3.46
Mark Blount	37	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	-1	-8	14.1	15.7	-1.54	16.5	13.4	3.08
Tony Battie	59	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-9	8	15.7	14.1	1.54	13.4	16.5	-3.08
J.R. Bremer	72	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	-3	-4	15.8	12.9	2.89	14.2	15.6	-1.37
Antoine Walker	82	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-5	0	15.2	14.6	0.52	14.1	17.1	-2.96
Eric Williams	70	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.08	-12	2	-14	15.8	13.1	2.70	14.1	15.9	-1.84
Paul Pierce	87	88	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	14.8	17.8	-2.97	14.9	11.9	3.02

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	58	56	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	2	6	14.0	15.5	-1.54	15.1	15.1	0.01
Donnell Harvey	56	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.11	10	0	10	14.2	15.1	-0.89	15.0	15.2	-0.19
Juwan Howard	73	73	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	6	-2	15.1	13.3	1.79	15.0	15.3	-0.23
Shammond Williams	49	51	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	1	8	15.1	14.1	0.94	15.8	14.3	1.45
Predrag Savovic	34	34	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.13	16	-6	22	13.0	15.5	-2.47	15.9	14.7	1.19
Ryan Bowen	16	15	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.13	12	-2	14	15.8	14.4	1.43	14.8	15.1	-0.34
Junior Harrington	52	48	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	6	-2	13.8	15.5	-1.63	14.1	16.1	-2.04
Rodney White	61	61	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.42	-10	20	-30	15.0	13.9	1.07	14.7	15.8	-1.17
Chris Andersen	49	47	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.27	-9	19	-28	15.1	14.1	1.06	14.0	16.2	-2.21
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	13	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	11	-12	14.4	14.6	-0.26	18.2	14.6	3.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 83, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.36,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.8,0.77,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
MIN 70, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
NYK 67, CHH 81	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.37,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.87,0.89,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	95.2%