NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	8.2 [212]		MVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): +16.7%
Washington Wizards	106		Comeback	1.7 [599]		LVP	Drew Gooden (ORL): -19.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordan Giricek	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.04	0.00	7	93%	0.18	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.05
Jeryl Sasser	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	3	112%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.01	0.08	-0.01	8	62%	0.23	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	43%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.08,0,0.06,0.06,-0.08,-0.05	0.18	-0.16	0.07	26	70%	0.09	3	-0.14	9	78%	-0.02
Shawn Kemp	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18,-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.2	-0.12	-0.08	-0.00	13	43%	0.00	5	-0.20	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.08	-0.01	18	56%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.14	0.01	16	66%	0.29	4	-0.14	15	100%	0.16
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	85%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kwame Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.06,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	10	57%	-0.04	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.3,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	18	59%	0.16	9	-0.34	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	27.6	16.4	21.4	2.4	37.7	131.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -11.8%

WAS +36.9%

WAS +1.0%

WAS +22.2%

WAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.2	16.6	15.5	112.9	112.8	101.6
season	14.6	16.5		102.7	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		101.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.8	13.5	16.4	13.1	14.2
WAS	16.8	17.2	16.3	16.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Kemp	35	35	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.11	7	-8	15	13.5	14.6	-1.01	18.3	15.6	2.75
Chris Whitney	25	25	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-10	19	13.5	14.4	-0.89	17.0	16.5	0.52
Andrew DeClercq	23	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	2	-5	14.9	13.9	0.93	18.6	16.0	2.58
Gordan Giricek	57	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.56	13	-14	27	13.5	15.2	-1.62	16.5	16.9	-0.38
Jacque Vaughn	39	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	5	-11	13.9	14.4	-0.52	16.9	16.4	0.42
Jeryl Sasser	38	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.10	-14	13	-27	14.9	13.7	1.22	16.8	16.5	0.23
Pat Garrity	62	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-2	3	14.1	14.4	-0.32	15.4	19.0	-3.57
Darrell Armstrong	41	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	3	-7	14.9	13.6	1.26	15.5	17.6	-2.08
Tracy McGrady	81	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-2	3	14.0	15.2	-1.24	16.4	18.0	-1.57
Drew Gooden	64	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	8	-17	14.7	13.0	1.65	16.9	16.0	0.89

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	89	87	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-6	13	16.4	21.2	-4.84	14.3	12.5	1.79
Jerry Stackhouse	83	82	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.53	1	0	1	16.3	18.6	-2.29	14.1	14.5	-0.42
Christian Laettner	78	78	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-6	13	16.1	19.4	-3.32	14.5	12.7	1.79
Bryon Russell	47	45	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.40	-1	2	-3	16.4	16.9	-0.51	14.1	14.2	-0.12
Michael Jordan	78	78	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.43	-5	6	-11	16.8	15.7	1.04	13.5	17.5	-3.93
Charles Oakley	21	20	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	1	-1	19.2	15.9	3.38	14.5	14.1	0.48
Kwame Brown	15	15	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	-1	3	16.4	16.7	-0.26	15.6	13.9	1.70
Brendan Haywood	54	54	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	1	-1	16.9	16.3	0.55	14.3	14.1	0.21
Juan Dixon	5	6	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	7	-13	21.2	16.4	4.84	12.5	14.3	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.45,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.85,1	92.7%
MIA 73, SAS 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.69,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.88,0.68,0.92,1	92.7%
CHA 96, MIL 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.8,0.71,0.85,0.95,1	92.6%