NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	96		Excitement	7.9 [259]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (MIL): +29.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	2.0 [638]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): -19.6%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.12	0.00	9	72%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16	0.10	0.03	-0.02	11	79%	0.28	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.05
Raymond Felton	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	14	63%	0.18	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Dudley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Adam Morrison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Sean May	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	5	38%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.17	0.01	-0.17	0.01	16	56%	0.01	3	-0.18	4	75%	-0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	7	32%	-0.07	3	-0.13	5	80%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.14	-0.00	11	69%	0.32	1	-0.03	10	100%	0.08
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.00	19	54%	0.05	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.01	10	61%	0.13	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.03
Joe Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	60%	0.03	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	8	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	30.3	15.6	26.1	2.6	38.3	139.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA -27.6%

MIL +19.6%

MIL +42.6%

MIL +12.9%

MIL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIL	NBA	CHA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.5	111.6	114.8	106.4
season	16.5	15.0		103.0	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.6	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.8	16.1	17.4	16.3	16.4
MIL	15.5	15.9	17.7	18.0	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	37	39	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.11	7	-12	19	16.9	16.0	0.96	17.2	16.4	0.81
Matt Carroll	6	6	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.08	5	-10	15	11.8	16.7	-4.88	14.2	16.9	-2.75
Adam Morrison	11	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-5	5	18.8	16.0	2.80	14.9	17.0	-2.10
Nazr Mohammed	24	24	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-6	7	17.5	16.0	1.51	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Sean May	38	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	4	-13	16.2	16.5	-0.34	16.4	17.0	-0.59
D.J. Augustin	48	50	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-9	13	16.5	16.2	0.34	17.0	16.4	0.59
Emeka Okafor	62	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	1	-7	16.0	17.5	-1.51	16.8	16.6	0.20
Raymond Felton	69	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	15.9	18.1	-2.18	17.2	14.9	2.29
Jason Richardson	65	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.27	-10	5	-15	16.9	14.9	2.00	16.6	17.2	-0.60
Gerald Wallace	70	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.25	-13	8	-21	16.1	17.7	-1.69	16.7	16.8	-0.12

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	78	77	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.34	7	-2	9	16.8	16.2	0.59	16.2	17.7	-1.45
Michael Redd	77	76	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	0	5	17.0	14.6	2.39	16.6	14.8	1.78
Andrew Bogut	61	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.25	5	0	5	17.3	15.4	1.85	16.0	17.5	-1.51
Malik Allen	54	56	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.11	8	-3	11	17.6	15.3	2.29	16.4	16.2	0.21
Luke Ridnour	60	61	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	3	-1	16.3	17.6	-1.24	16.6	15.9	0.64
Charlie Villanueva	39	34	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.24	-2	7	-9	14.8	18.2	-3.42	16.1	16.5	-0.37
Ramon Sessions	13	11	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	3	-1	16.5	16.8	-0.31	13.8	16.7	-2.93
Tyronn Lue	15	14	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	4	-3	18.5	16.4	2.18	17.6	16.1	1.43
Dan Gadzuric	22	20	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	6	-7	16.4	16.8	-0.48	17.8	15.9	1.93
Joe Alexander	14	12	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	4	-3	14.2	17.2	-2.99	17.4	16.2	1.21
Luc Mbah a Moute	7	7	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	8	-11	17.7	16.6	1.07	14.0	16.6	-2.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.8,0.71,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 96, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.67,0.71,0.89,0.93,0.99,1	94.1%
VAN 91, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.52,0.68,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.77,0.92,1	93.1%
NYK 78, MIL 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.35,0.39,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.72,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.9,0.9,1	92.8%