NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	73		Excitement	7.1 [393]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +9.8%
San Antonio Spurs	80		Comeback	1.6 [862]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -32.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.00	0.02	14	74%	0.14	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.05
Loren Woods	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Penney	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Bimbo Coles	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	15	44%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
John Wallace	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	9	40%	-0.13	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.32	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.21	-0.13	-0.02	11	12%	-0.19	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.06	-0.01	4	60%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	7	54%	0.00	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.07
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.08	-0.00	12	45%	0.04	2	-0.04	7	29%	-0.07
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	13	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Shane Heal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	11	44%	-0.13	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.17	-0.07	-0.01	3	20%	-0.07	5	-0.16	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.5	34.3	17.4	27.9	2.5	32.9	142.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.2%

MIA -3.9%

SAS +2.9%

SAS +14.7%

SAS +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.7	83.9	93.0	100.5
season	16.2	15.9		99.3	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.9		92.7	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.5	13.8	15.9	19.0	16.6
SAS	19.4	15.6	17.7	14.6	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Woods	23	24	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.04	12	-19	31	14.3	17.4	-3.06	16.6	16.7	-0.16
Bimbo Coles	19	18	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-7	7	17.0	16.5	0.51	13.4	17.6	-4.18
Kirk Penney	8	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.03	-2	-5	3	14.4	16.8	-2.45	12.5	17.1	-4.63
Malik Allen	16	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-1	-5	13.7	17.2	-3.49	16.9	16.7	0.20
Udonis Haslem	58	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-11	15	16.2	17.3	-1.07	18.3	13.7	4.65
Eddie Jones	61	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.16	-2	-5	3	17.6	14.3	3.27	16.8	16.5	0.22
Lamar Odom	72	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-3	-1	16.9	15.0	1.93	16.2	19.1	-2.87
Rafer Alston	70	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	2	-11	16.3	17.8	-1.52	17.5	13.4	4.17
John Wallace	48	48	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	3	-13	16.6	16.5	0.11	16.1	17.5	-1.44
Brian Grant	60	59	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.26	-18	11	-29	17.6	14.3	3.39	16.8	16.4	0.42

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	58	62	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.19	14	-7	21	16.1	17.9	-1.72	16.7	16.3	0.39
Rasho Nesterovic	56	56	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.27	3	4	-1	17.5	15.2	2.30	16.9	16.1	0.78
Robert Horry	28	29	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-4	15	14.6	17.7	-3.15	17.2	16.3	0.91
Hedo Turkoglu	42	41	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.01	10	-3	13	16.5	16.9	-0.48	16.8	16.4	0.39
Shane Heal	24	25	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-1	9	14.7	17.5	-2.82	17.4	16.3	1.07
Jason Hart	62	62	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	8	-9	17.5	14.7	2.82	16.3	17.4	-1.07
Bruce Bowen	52	51	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.33	-4	11	-15	17.8	15.0	2.81	16.4	16.9	-0.45
Malik Rose	59	60	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	9	-11	17.7	14.6	3.07	16.1	17.7	-1.66
Kevin Willis	29	29	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	5	-3	15.2	17.4	-2.20	16.5	16.6	-0.12
Ron Mercer	20	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	13	-19	15.9	16.9	-0.97	16.3	16.7	-0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.69,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.88,0.68,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 81, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.78,0.84,1	93.4%
MIN 93, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.71,0.92,1	92.8%
ORL 105, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.92,1	92.7%