NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	8.6 [134]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (ATL): +13.9%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.6 [707]		LVP	Elton Brand (CHI): -22.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	2	150%	0.19	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.01	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Fred Hoiberg	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.04	-0.02	15	48%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Corey Benjamin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.03	0.01	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Bryce Drew	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	70%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	47%	-0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2	-0.04	-0.13	0.04	18	50%	-0.10	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.04
Elton Brand	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.2,-0.22	-0.13	-0.10	-0.00	21	42%	-0.11	3	-0.11	6	33%	-0.10

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.06	0.17	-0.03	16	48%	0.21	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	13	55%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.06	-0.00	22	43%	0.14	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.08	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	8	65%	0.02	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	3	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	29.2	15.7	24.2	2.6	30.4	127.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +33.7%

ATL +5.4%

CHI -0.6%

ATL +10.6%

ATL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.5	93.8	98.9	100.9
season	16.4	15.4		95.2	96.0
opponent	15.1	15.1		101.6	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	15.5	15.6	15.4	15.4
ATL	14.9	13.3	15.7	15.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Fizer	19	19	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-7	11	15.2	15.4	-0.23	12.6	15.5	-2.93
Brad Miller	20	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.18	0	-3	3	16.9	15.0	1.90	14.2	15.1	-0.96
Metta World Peace	88	87	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-8	13	15.2	17.5	-2.30	15.0	14.1	0.83
Bryce Drew	69	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.28	1	-4	5	15.3	15.6	-0.33	14.5	16.0	-1.57
Jamal Crawford	27	27	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	1	-5	15.6	15.3	0.33	16.0	14.5	1.57
Elton Brand	76	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-2	1	14.8	17.7	-2.97	15.1	14.0	1.15
Fred Hoiberg	86	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-4	5	15.6	13.7	1.89	15.1	13.9	1.14
Corey Benjamin	18	19	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	9	-21	15.4	15.4	-0.01	14.0	15.1	-1.15
Michael Ruffin	77	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	6	-15	15.7	14.3	1.35	15.5	13.0	2.56

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	68	71	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.43	12	-9	21	14.6	15.8	-1.29	14.9	16.9	-2.01
Alan Henderson	56	59	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.35	11	-8	19	14.6	15.4	-0.81	15.7	14.9	0.86
Toni Kukoc	79	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-4	11	14.8	15.4	-0.58	15.2	16.7	-1.51
Dion Glover	56	58	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.43	5	-2	7	15.0	14.7	0.30	16.4	13.8	2.62
Jason Terry	79	78	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.38	-7	10	-17	15.2	13.5	1.64	14.8	18.1	-3.34
DerMarr Johnson	20	21	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	0	3	16.5	14.5	2.08	18.8	14.4	4.37
Hanno Mottola	10	9	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	7	-11	16.3	14.7	1.55	18.1	15.1	3.00
Chris Crawford	59	60	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	7	-11	14.3	15.9	-1.64	14.6	16.7	-2.03
Nazr Mohammed	43	43	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	11	-19	15.2	14.7	0.50	14.8	15.9	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.45,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 105, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.92,1	92.7%
LAL 108, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	91.9%
MIN 92, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.84,0.63,1	91.8%