NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	7.0 [402]		MVP	Marko Jaric (LAC): +15.9%
Los Angeles Clippers	110		Comeback	1.5 [685]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -10.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.05,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	12	67%	0.18	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.04
Tim Thomas	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.08	0.01	15	53%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.01	6	67%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	19	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jason Caffey	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	5	54%	0.00	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02
Ray Allen	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.1	0.02	-0.13	-0.01	14	63%	0.05	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.03

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	5	79%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.00	5	80%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.02	7	72%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0	0.00	-0.07	0.08	0.00	13	43%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	17	49%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.04
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.03	20	51%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	8	60%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.6	26.4	16.4	21.8	1.5	31.7	120.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +11.9%

MIL -0.7%

LAC +22.8%

LAC +15.3%

LAC +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	LAC	NBA	MIL	LAC	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.5	114.3	119.6	101.6
season	15.4	15.4		106.3	100.2
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.3	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.2	14.5	15.8	17.5	16.0
LAC	13.2	18.2	14.2	16.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Caffey	53	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-5	4	15.2	17.1	-1.87	16.2	14.5	1.64
Anthony Mason	63	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-9	12	15.8	16.5	-0.74	15.0	16.4	-1.35
Michael Redd	49	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.33	3	-9	12	16.8	15.0	1.84	15.4	15.6	-0.28
Sam Cassell	69	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-6	6	15.9	16.3	-0.43	14.8	17.6	-2.82
Ervin Johnson	15	16	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	5	-16	16.6	15.9	0.73	16.2	15.3	0.92
Kevin Ollie	23	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	0	-6	16.6	15.8	0.77	16.5	15.1	1.31
Toni Kukoc	44	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	0	-6	16.9	15.1	1.83	14.9	16.1	-1.20
Tim Thomas	61	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	0	-6	15.9	16.2	-0.27	15.1	16.2	-1.05
Ray Allen	78	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	0	-6	15.5	18.8	-3.33	16.2	11.4	4.87

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	71	71	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.24	7	-1	8	14.6	18.5	-3.93	16.1	15.7	0.31
Eric Piatkowski	43	43	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.32	4	2	2	17.5	13.7	3.75	16.0	16.0	0.02
Marko Jaric	42	41	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	4	-2	15.8	15.2	0.63	17.2	15.0	2.28
Elton Brand	72	72	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	1	4	14.7	18.5	-3.85	16.0	15.8	0.25
Cherokee Parks	31	30	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.24	2	4	-2	17.5	14.5	3.01	16.8	15.6	1.21
Corey Maggette	66	64	0.21	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	-2	10	15.4	15.7	-0.34	15.5	17.1	-1.54
Lamar Odom	58	59	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.18	-1	7	-8	14.6	17.1	-2.54	15.5	16.9	-1.37
Melvin Ely	42	40	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.08	1	5	-4	16.7	14.5	2.21	16.2	15.8	0.47
Sean Rooks	35	35	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	4	-2	14.7	16.0	-1.30	14.9	16.7	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.79,0.66,0.6,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.87,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.98,1	93.1%
POR 83, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.77,0.66,0.69,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	92.7%
ATL 84, CHI 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	92.7%