NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	8.9 [142]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +19.9%
Sacramento Kings	101		Comeback	3.8 [198]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -47.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2	0.06	0.14	-0.00	8	83%	0.29	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	71%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.08,-0.02,0.05,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.01	23	61%	0.17	3	-0.16	10	80%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	11	48%	-0.03	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.11
Stephen Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	13	38%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.48	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.48	-0.17	-0.34	-0.03	18	40%	-0.37	4	-0.11	9	67%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	4	80%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Doug Christie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	8	100%	0.22	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.1,0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	19	45%	0.08	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	15	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	-0.00	8	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.02	14	58%	-0.02	3	-0.06	10	100%	0.08
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	8	37%	-0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.13	0.01	8	62%	0.09	3	-0.24	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.3	38.1	17.6	25.8	3.5	38.3	150.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -29.9%

SAS +18.3%

SAS +43.6%

SAS +12.9%

SAS +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	16.4	13.9	15.5	109.5	106.3	101.6
season	15.7	14.0		102.5	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		98.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.1	15.9	16.4	18.5	16.4
SAC	12.6	14.1	15.6	13.6	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	60	61	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.25	17	-14	31	16.8	15.7	1.15	14.2	13.4	0.72
Tim Duncan	85	85	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.45	9	-6	15	16.3	17.1	-0.77	13.8	14.5	-0.66
Manu Ginobili	57	57	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-11	25	16.3	16.6	-0.32	13.9	14.0	-0.11
Bruce Bowen	70	69	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.54	-6	9	-15	16.8	15.4	1.32	14.2	13.2	0.98
Tony Parker	78	78	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.40	-2	5	-7	16.6	15.5	1.07	14.0	13.6	0.31
Steve Kerr	17	18	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	-2	7	15.5	16.6	-1.07	12.9	14.1	-1.25
Stephen Jackson	63	63	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	5	-7	16.1	16.9	-0.79	13.9	14.0	-0.10
Kevin Willis	45	44	-0.47	0.97	-1.43	0.12	-20	23	-43	16.0	16.8	-0.78	13.7	14.1	-0.42

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	21	21	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.12	5	-8	13	15.5	13.5	2.02	17.3	16.1	1.18
Bobby Jackson	44	43	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.16	-3	0	-3	14.2	13.6	0.64	16.9	16.0	0.86
Keon Clark	75	74	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.29	8	-11	19	13.9	13.8	0.07	17.1	14.0	3.09
Jim Jackson	36	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	0	-3	14.4	13.6	0.82	16.2	16.6	-0.39
Mike Bibby	78	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.39	-1	-2	1	13.8	14.2	-0.40	16.7	15.2	1.47
Doug Christie	70	70	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.65	-4	1	-5	13.4	15.4	-1.97	15.4	19.3	-3.89
Vlade Divac	77	78	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.50	-9	6	-15	14.0	13.5	0.50	16.3	17.0	-0.72
Peja Stojakovic	74	74	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.53	-8	5	-13	13.5	15.5	-2.02	16.1	17.3	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.78,0.67,0.42,0	90.6%
WAS 88, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.46,0.42,0.58,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.75,0.54,0.84,0.15,0	90.4%
DET 90, MIA 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.54,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.27,0	90.4%