NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	96		Excitement	9.1 [125]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +48.0%
Houston Rockets	93		Comeback	3.6 [352]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -16.8%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.48	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.48,0.48	0.11	0.37	0.00	26	65%	0.54	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.01
Rick Fox	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.07	0.01	7	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kareem Rush	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.11,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	22	55%	0.04	5	-0.20	12	92%	0.09

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	13	68%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.06	-0.03	8	65%	0.16	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.13	3	-0.13	7	100%	0.10
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	0.03	17	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	14	48%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Yao Ming	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	13	23%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.5	29.6	17.8	33.3	3.4	41.4	153.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +48.5%

LAL +19.7%

HOU -5.3%

HOU -4.2%

HOU -8.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	HOU	NBA	LAL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.6	17.7	15.5	112.9	105.7	101.6
season	15.4	16.3		105.0	101.7
opponent	15.4	15.1		100.4	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.2	13.9	16.8	15.5	15.6
HOU	18.1	19.5	16.0	17.3	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	58	61	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.50	8	-5	13	15.6	15.5	0.14	17.0	19.3	-2.33
Kobe Bryant	78	81	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.51	7	-4	11	15.7	13.7	2.03	17.7	17.3	0.43
Derek Fisher	71	74	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-2	7	15.5	15.9	-0.42	17.3	19.6	-2.25
Shaquille O'Neal	79	83	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	-1	5	15.4	18.2	-2.79	17.5	20.0	-2.46
Robert Horry	55	57	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	-5	13	14.6	17.3	-2.66	18.2	16.6	1.60
Mark Madsen	30	31	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.18	-5	8	-13	17.3	14.6	2.66	16.6	18.2	-1.60
Brian Shaw	4	4	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	1	1	10.5	15.8	-5.33	19.2	17.6	1.64
Samaki Walker	6	5	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.04	-1	4	-5	18.2	15.4	2.79	20.0	17.5	2.46
Devean George	27	27	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.09	-5	8	-13	15.5	15.6	-0.14	19.3	17.0	2.33
Kareem Rush	17	17	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.07	-8	11	-19	16.3	15.4	0.90	18.7	17.4	1.27

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Griffin	13	13	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.06	7	-10	17	18.7	17.5	1.19	18.0	15.1	2.86
Moochie Norris	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-1	-1	20.6	17.4	3.14	15.9	15.6	0.31
Yao Ming	56	54	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-4	5	17.7	17.7	0.04	15.6	15.6	-0.06
Terence Morris	23	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-1	-1	17.9	17.6	0.25	15.2	15.7	-0.55
James Posey	66	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-3	3	17.5	18.3	-0.85	15.6	15.5	0.10
Glen Rice	41	39	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	1	-5	18.4	17.0	1.42	14.7	16.3	-1.68
Kelvin Cato	32	31	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	1	-5	17.7	17.7	-0.04	15.6	15.6	0.06
Steve Francis	81	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	17.4	20.6	-3.14	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Maurice Taylor	52	49	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	5	-13	17.3	18.2	-0.82	15.1	16.2	-1.07
Cuttino Mobley	69	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.50	-2	-1	-1	17.4	18.6	-1.14	16.1	13.6	2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.78,0.67,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, GSW 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.61,0.79,0.78,0.42,0	91.5%
UTA 99, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.75,0.79,0.68,0.59,0	91.2%
LAC 107, GSW 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.56,0.64,0.57,0.42,0	90.9%