NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	90		Excitement	8.2 [213]		MVP	Corliss Williamson (DET): +15.6%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	6.6 [176]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -37.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	0.00	14	67%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,0.01,-0.01	-0.12	0.11	-0.00	11	46%	0.12	5	-0.13	6	33%	-0.06
Damon Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	2	75%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	14	53%	0.12	3	-0.22	6	50%	-0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.37	-0.22	-0.18	-0.03	15	35%	-0.27	5	-0.10	10	80%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.01	12	67%	0.21	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.06
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	10	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kendall Gill	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	53%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	16	44%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.04
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	7	25%	-0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.13	-0.02	11	36%	-0.17	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.31	-0.31	-0.03	-0.28	0.00	8	45%	-0.31	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	2.7	28.3	15.6	25.2	2.0	37.2	139.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +72.5%

MIA -26.2%

DET +18.6%

MIA -19.8%

DET +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.9	15.6	96.8	96.7	102.3
season	15.7	16.5		101.9	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		98.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.3	16.4	17.5	15.9	15.6
MIA	13.3	15.6	17.6	17.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	57	55	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.52	3	0	3	15.6	15.6	-0.01	16.1	15.5	0.69
Jerry Stackhouse	65	61	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	-2	7	14.9	17.2	-2.26	15.6	16.5	-0.89
Michael Curry	38	36	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	-4	11	15.0	16.0	-1.06	14.3	16.9	-2.62
Clifford Robinson	71	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	-2	7	15.4	16.4	-1.00	15.8	16.3	-0.56
Ben Wallace	79	74	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.47	-1	4	-5	15.8	14.6	1.21	15.5	17.6	-2.05
Zeljko Rebraca	36	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	1	1	15.7	15.6	0.11	16.9	15.2	1.65
Corliss Williamson	50	50	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.07	-2	5	-7	16.0	15.2	0.77	17.0	14.4	2.62
Jon Barry	33	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	7	-11	17.1	14.8	2.35	16.4	15.6	0.77
Damon Jones	36	35	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.11	0	3	-3	15.6	15.6	0.01	15.5	16.1	-0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	13	13	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.04	-1	-2	1	16.8	15.7	1.04	14.9	15.7	-0.79
Eddie House	39	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-5	7	16.0	15.8	0.26	16.1	15.2	0.91
Brian Grant	75	77	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-4	5	16.0	15.5	0.49	15.5	16.2	-0.71
Alonzo Mourning	65	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.39	6	-9	15	15.3	17.4	-2.16	15.8	15.0	0.88
Kendall Gill	35	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.00	-9	6	-15	15.3	16.2	-0.88	14.6	16.3	-1.73
LaPhonso Ellis	50	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-7	11	16.4	15.2	1.27	16.0	15.1	0.97
Rod Strickland	69	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.43	3	-6	9	15.7	16.6	-0.90	15.7	15.4	0.22
Chris Gatling	25	25	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	8	-19	17.0	15.4	1.55	15.4	15.7	-0.22
Eddie Jones	79	82	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.33	-10	7	-17	15.8	16.5	-0.76	15.6	15.7	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.54,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.26,0	90.8%
MIL 102, MEM 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.42,0	90.4%
SAS 104, SAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.28,0	90.4%