NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	8.3 [187]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAS): +13.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	93		Comeback	2.9 [176]		LVP	Jason Williams (MEM): -18.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	-0.01	-0.00	10	90%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.11,-0.04,-0.17,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.04	0.01	18	52%	0.17	5	-0.22	6	33%	-0.06
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	60%	0.00	3	-0.08	10	70%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	7	39%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.07
Manu Ginobili	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	9	50%	-0.08	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.04

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	0.00	10	82%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	11	55%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.09	0.01	11	54%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.08
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.19	-0.19	-0.01	-0.17	0.00	15	46%	-0.19	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	3.4	32.4	20.7	34.0	3.5	38.3	160.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +29.5%

SAS +4.9%

SAS +42.2%

MEM -32.2%

SAS +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	18.7	15.6	15.7	111.8	112.0	100.5
season	15.9	15.3		100.1	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		100.5	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.9	17.0	19.6	22.1	18.7
MEM	14.4	14.1	16.4	17.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	54	52	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.41	17	-15	32	17.7	20.4	-2.75	15.2	16.3	-1.14
Tim Duncan	69	67	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.52	-1	3	-4	19.1	16.6	2.52	16.6	11.5	5.05
Bruce Bowen	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	0	2	19.5	17.2	2.22	16.5	13.8	2.71
Robert Horry	44	42	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	-9	20	20.4	16.8	3.56	16.3	14.9	1.43
Tony Parker	66	66	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.33	2	0	2	18.3	19.9	-1.58	15.5	15.7	-0.16
Hedo Turkoglu	60	59	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.46	-7	9	-16	17.4	21.8	-4.43	14.8	17.4	-2.59
Jason Hart	19	17	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	2	-2	19.9	18.3	1.58	15.7	15.5	0.16
Rasho Nesterovic	34	36	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.06	4	-2	6	19.0	18.5	0.50	15.7	15.5	0.21
Devin Brown	4	3	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	10	-18	27.2	18.2	9.00	14.3	15.6	-1.29
Malik Rose	20	18	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.03	-10	12	-22	15.5	19.6	-4.15	11.2	16.8	-5.63

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	46	46	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-7	12	16.6	14.3	2.26	20.0	17.2	2.80
Stromile Swift	31	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.10	-4	2	-6	14.1	16.4	-2.31	18.5	18.8	-0.25
Earl Watson	23	26	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-2	2	14.0	16.2	-2.24	19.6	18.3	1.31
Bo Outlaw	25	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	0	-2	14.2	16.2	-2.03	19.6	18.2	1.35
Mike Miller	42	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.27	4	-6	10	16.0	15.1	0.90	18.9	18.5	0.38
Bonzi Wells	41	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.17	-6	4	-10	15.1	16.0	-0.90	18.5	18.9	-0.38
Pau Gasol	58	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-2	2	16.2	14.2	2.03	18.2	19.6	-1.35
Jason Williams	60	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	0	-2	16.2	14.0	2.24	18.3	19.6	-1.31
James Posey	53	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-3	4	16.5	14.0	2.52	18.5	18.9	-0.37
Shane Battier	36	37	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	4	-10	14.2	16.6	-2.44	17.4	19.6	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 89, DAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.42,0.3,0.14,0.2,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.45,0.63,0.57,0.27,0	91.2%
DET 90, MIA 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.54,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.27,0	90.8%
WAS 87, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.41,0.47,0.34,0.47,0.54,0.32,0.42,0	90.5%