NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	8.9 [146]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +23.1%
Utah Jazz	90		Comeback	26.7 [33]		LVP	Kevin Willis (SAS): -23.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.32,0.23	-0.12	0.35	-0.00	20	51%	0.42	4	-0.19	17	65%	-0.08
Manu Ginobili	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	5	80%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	10	62%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	65%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Stephen Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,0.02	-0.04	0.06	0.00	12	41%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.08
Danny Ferry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	4	27%	-0.04	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Kevin Willis	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.10	-0.12	0.02	4	50%	-0.02	5	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	7	63%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	53%	0.03	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	4	64%	-0.04	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.05
Karl Malone	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	22	38%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	17	39%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.0	26.1	15.3	27.5	2.5	38.5	135.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +60.9%

UTA -6.7%

UTA -8.1%

UTA -19.7%

SAS +23.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	16.0	16.3	15.5	101.1	102.3	101.6
season	15.7	16.3		102.5	103.1
opponent	15.3	15.4		101.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	19.0	15.4	14.6	16.0
UTA	17.2	14.6	17.3	16.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	48	47	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.64	11	-10	21	16.6	15.4	1.20	17.4	15.1	2.24
Tim Duncan	80	77	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.43	13	-12	25	15.7	18.6	-2.87	16.5	14.8	1.71
Tony Parker	59	56	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.47	10	-9	19	16.1	15.9	0.17	17.2	14.7	2.56
Stephen Jackson	65	62	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.47	1	0	1	15.6	17.2	-1.60	17.0	14.8	2.20
Steve Kerr	31	33	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.65	-7	8	-15	15.9	16.1	-0.17	14.3	17.5	-3.27
Manu Ginobili	25	25	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	-1	3	16.6	15.8	0.82	16.4	16.3	0.11
Steven Smith	25	26	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	1	-1	17.2	15.6	1.60	14.8	17.0	-2.20
Danny Ferry	9	10	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	11	-21	19.7	15.6	4.02	14.6	16.5	-1.94
Bruce Bowen	65	62	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.21	-3	4	-7	15.8	16.6	-0.82	16.5	15.8	0.72
Malik Rose	43	42	-0.52	1.02	-1.53	-0.16	-12	13	-25	15.3	16.8	-1.51	15.2	17.4	-2.20

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	38	36	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.07	10	-11	21	15.9	16.6	-0.75	16.0	16.1	-0.12
Greg Ostertag	64	66	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.16	-1	0	-1	17.2	13.9	3.30	16.1	15.9	0.17
Tony Massenburg	19	19	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-4	7	13.2	17.2	-4.03	16.3	16.0	0.28
Calbert Cheaney	53	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	5	-11	17.5	14.5	2.95	16.2	15.8	0.49
Andrei Kirilenko	56	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.50	4	-5	9	15.3	18.1	-2.79	15.9	16.3	-0.42
Scott Padgett	24	22	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.56	5	-6	11	14.5	17.0	-2.50	16.3	16.0	0.30
Matt Harpring	67	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.51	0	-1	1	16.2	16.6	-0.33	16.0	16.1	-0.12
Karl Malone	69	73	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.48	-9	8	-17	17.0	13.9	3.09	15.9	16.8	-0.89
John Stockton	50	54	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.54	-11	10	-21	16.6	15.9	0.75	16.1	16.0	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.73,0	92.3%
HOU 85, CHA 82	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.75,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.78,0.73,0	91.6%
TOR 114, BOS 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.43,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.83,0.71,0.87,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.84,0	91.4%