NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	84		Excitement	6.2 [549]		MVP	Rafer Alston (TOR): +13.1%
Washington Wizards	75		Comeback	3.5 [95]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -16.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.01	9	72%	0.20	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	19	52%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jerome Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	64%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Damone Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	10	59%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Alvin Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.05	-0.03	7	21%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Art Long	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	13	31%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	9	45%	-0.03	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	4	70%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.11	0.06	-0.05	17	34%	0.03	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	55%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	23	42%	-0.11	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.05	-0.03	7	14%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	10	20%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	23.3	14.8	23.0	2.5	26.7	116.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +60.7%

TOR +1.6%

TOR +8.8%

WAS -24.5%

TOR +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	15.8	16.6	15.5	95.5	83.3	101.6
season	16.2	16.5		98.8	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		101.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.2	13.7	14.7	20.1	15.8
WAS	13.6	19.7	15.9	17.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	66	68	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.13	18	-9	27	15.4	16.7	-1.29	15.9	18.8	-2.95
Morris Peterson	84	87	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.20	15	-6	21	15.8	15.7	0.01	16.5	18.7	-2.15
Damone Brown	59	60	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	3	3	15.5	16.3	-0.82	16.9	15.9	1.03
Rafer Alston	61	63	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	-4	17	15.3	16.8	-1.47	17.1	15.3	1.85
Alvin Williams	52	53	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	8	-7	16.5	14.7	1.71	16.3	17.0	-0.65
Jelani McCoy	48	48	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	6	-3	15.7	15.8	-0.12	16.9	16.3	0.61
Antonio Davis	46	46	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.29	-6	15	-21	16.7	14.8	1.87	14.9	18.4	-3.52
Art Long	24	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.09	-5	14	-19	15.3	15.9	-0.59	19.8	15.4	4.39

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	26	25	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-12	15	19.5	15.4	4.04	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Charles Oakley	11	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-6	3	13.1	17.1	-3.99	12.7	16.2	-3.47
Kwame Brown	35	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-7	5	18.6	15.3	3.29	14.5	16.5	-2.04
Bryon Russell	39	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-2	-5	15.4	17.5	-2.03	14.9	16.4	-1.51
Juan Dixon	45	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-7	5	16.0	17.2	-1.13	15.8	15.7	0.16
Tyronn Lue	36	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-7	5	19.1	14.9	4.16	15.7	15.8	-0.04
Michael Jordan	76	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-6	3	17.0	14.2	2.81	15.6	16.7	-1.09
Christian Laettner	53	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-3	-3	15.6	18.0	-2.44	16.5	14.7	1.79
Brendan Haywood	55	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	1	-11	15.6	18.1	-2.50	16.7	14.2	2.49
Larry Hughes	74	72	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.21	-13	4	-17	15.9	19.9	-4.00	16.3	13.1	3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.42,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 92, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.05,0	92.8%
LAC 98, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.47,0.28,0.42,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.05,0,0,0,0	92.7%
SEA 107, HOU 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.42,0.29,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.42,0.26,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.4%