NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	85		Excitement	4.8 [850]		MVP	James Posey (HOU): +14.2%
Houston Rockets	87		Comeback	1.3 [1223]		LVP	Rodney White (DEN): -12.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	0.00	7	43%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Junior Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	14	53%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Crotty	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	16	51%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	10	54%	0.01	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Vincent Yarbrough	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	0.07	15	47%	-0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	10	69%	0.17	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	-0.05	16	47%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	14	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	60%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	17	57%	0.05	6	-0.14	10	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	25.9	15.8	23.7	2.0	39.1	133.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +56.9%

DEN -11.6%

HOU +7.4%

DEN -8.8%

HOU +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.5	16.4	15.5	93.4	96.7	101.6
season	15.7	16.3		90.4	101.7
opponent	15.4	15.3		100.4	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.3	16.7	16.5	11.9	15.5
HOU	17.0	13.9	17.0	17.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	47	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.31	10	-12	22	15.1	15.9	-0.78	16.0	16.7	-0.64
Mark Blount	31	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	4	-10	14.8	15.8	-0.99	15.3	16.9	-1.51
John Crotty	22	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	6	-14	16.2	15.2	1.01	17.0	16.2	0.78
Junior Harrington	67	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-5	8	15.6	15.1	0.46	16.4	16.3	0.14
Vincent Yarbrough	52	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-4	6	16.2	14.4	1.84	16.1	16.8	-0.75
Rodney White	47	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	3	-8	14.1	16.9	-2.76	16.2	16.6	-0.42
Juwan Howard	76	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.48	6	-8	14	15.6	14.7	0.95	17.1	12.5	4.58
Ryan Bowen	38	41	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	6	-14	15.8	15.2	0.65	17.0	15.9	1.12
Nene	75	75	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	2	-6	15.6	14.9	0.64	16.0	18.0	-1.96

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cuttino Mobley	80	82	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.29	10	-8	18	16.5	15.2	1.31	15.2	17.6	-2.32
Eddie Griffin	71	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-7	16	16.9	14.3	2.60	15.5	15.4	0.05
Steve Francis	72	73	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.38	3	-1	4	16.2	17.0	-0.79	15.9	13.8	2.03
Glen Rice	29	27	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	-15	32	16.2	16.4	-0.24	18.3	14.3	3.98
Kelvin Cato	47	51	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.48	-6	8	-14	15.1	17.8	-2.73	14.2	17.0	-2.79
Yao Ming	21	18	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	-3	8	17.7	16.0	1.76	17.7	14.9	2.82
James Posey	61	64	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.49	-15	17	-32	16.4	16.2	0.24	14.3	18.3	-3.98
Terence Morris	41	41	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.18	-6	8	-14	16.2	16.5	-0.27	16.0	15.0	0.94
Moochie Norris	28	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.18	-7	9	-16	16.4	16.4	-0.01	15.1	15.6	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, SAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
MEM 86, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
GSW 105, CHI 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%