NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	4.2 [961]		MVP	Matt Harpring (UTA): +15.3%
Utah Jazz	92		Comeback	1.0 [1250]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -14.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	12	57%	0.04	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.03	0.05	16	53%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	52%	-0.03	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Caron Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	15	46%	-0.02	3	-0.04	11	82%	0.02
Malik Allen	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	10	30%	-0.08	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.03	0.05	19	76%	0.20	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	7	36%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	7	47%	-0.01	3	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Karl Malone	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.01	0.01	10	54%	-0.05	5	-0.10	15	87%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	30.3	15.0	26.2	2.7	30.5	131.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +57.5%

UTA +0.3%

UTA +1.4%

MIA -8.4%

MIA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	17.3	16.8	15.5	89.4	109.5	101.6
season	16.3	16.3		94.6	103.1
opponent	15.3	15.9		101.1	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.5	17.1	18.0	15.5	17.3
UTA	15.7	17.1	16.2	17.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	52	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	-10	4	16.6	18.4	-1.78	15.8	18.2	-2.40
Rasual Butler	67	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-10	4	16.8	19.2	-2.43	16.8	16.6	0.18
Vladimir Stepania	32	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	-8	0	17.7	17.1	0.66	18.4	15.7	2.70
Brian Grant	62	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	-6	-4	17.4	17.1	0.24	16.3	18.0	-1.69
Malik Allen	57	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-6	-4	17.3	17.4	-0.13	16.5	17.2	-0.62
Sean Lampley	51	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	-4	-8	17.1	17.6	-0.42	16.4	17.4	-0.97
Mike James	33	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-6	-4	18.4	16.6	1.78	18.2	15.8	2.40
Caron Butler	71	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.02	-18	2	-20	17.7	15.3	2.42	16.8	16.6	0.24

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	46	45	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.06	20	-4	24	17.9	15.4	2.47	17.7	16.9	0.81
Mark Jackson	30	29	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.03	15	1	14	19.8	15.1	4.71	18.8	16.5	2.31
Calbert Cheaney	62	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	3	10	17.4	15.1	2.22	17.2	17.5	-0.29
Matt Harpring	64	66	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.04	12	4	8	15.3	21.5	-6.20	17.1	18.0	-0.89
John Amaechi	22	22	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	7	2	20.0	15.6	4.31	18.8	16.8	2.04
Karl Malone	66	69	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	4	8	15.5	21.5	-6.02	17.1	18.2	-1.16
Scott Padgett	21	20	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	10	-4	20.0	15.7	4.24	19.6	16.6	3.07
Greg Ostertag	30	32	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	14	-12	16.8	16.8	-0.01	17.8	17.0	0.86
John Stockton	51	53	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	12	-8	15.0	19.6	-4.61	16.7	18.3	-1.61
Carlos Arroyo	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	17.3	16.8	0.58	13.3	17.5	-4.12
Tony Massenburg	15	13	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.16	-6	22	-28	14.8	17.2	-2.40	13.0	18.1	-5.08
DeShawn Stevenson	10	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	20	-24	15.3	17.0	-1.67	14.4	17.6	-3.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 78, CLE 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.87,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
DAL 105, HOU 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.88,0.84,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
IND 83, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.6%