NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	2.9 [1184]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +9.9%
Atlanta Hawks	73		Comeback	1.6 [314]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (ATL): -10.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.01	-0.07	14	56%	0.10	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.03
Caron Butler	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.16	0.00	0.07	15	74%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	80%	0.05	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	5	67%	0.02	5	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	61%	0.00	0	0.00	10	80%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	9	40%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	15	52%	0.04	1	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	75%	0.07	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	20%	0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.12	0.00	-0.12	6	19%	-0.00	1	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	1	83%	0.00	6	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	6	14%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.02	-0.05	12	48%	0.01	7	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	25.6	15.6	28.0	1.6	30.5	130.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.9%

MIA +2.3%

MIA +0.1%

MIA +27.0%

MIA +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.3	16.2	15.5	111.5	78.5	101.6
season	16.3	15.1		94.6	99.5
opponent	15.7	15.9		103.1	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	14.2	16.4	12.0	14.3
ATL	14.5	17.9	17.1	15.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	72	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.40	30	4	26	14.9	12.4	2.56	16.6	15.0	1.67
Vladimir Stepania	53	52	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.32	26	8	18	13.1	15.7	-2.59	17.0	15.2	1.74
Mike James	70	68	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.21	20	14	6	14.4	14.0	0.35	15.5	18.2	-2.66
Caron Butler	60	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.28	21	13	8	15.1	12.9	2.24	16.8	15.3	1.54
Anthony Carter	47	47	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.35	23	11	12	13.0	15.6	-2.57	16.8	15.7	1.11
Malik Allen	60	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.37	22	12	10	14.9	13.2	1.76	16.0	16.5	-0.48
Brian Grant	56	54	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.28	19	15	4	15.2	12.9	2.30	17.0	15.2	1.78
Rasual Butler	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.31	11	23	-12	11.7	15.3	-3.59	15.2	16.7	-1.48
Sean Marks	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	34	-34	13.3	14.5	-1.14	13.2	16.7	-3.53
Sean Lampley	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	34	-34	13.3	14.5	-1.14	13.2	16.7	-3.53
Travis Best	4	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	36	-38	21.0	14.0	7.00	18.0	16.2	1.82

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Maloney	14	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-34	34	13.2	16.7	-3.53	13.3	14.5	-1.14
Dion Glover	28	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.30	-11	-23	12	15.5	16.5	-1.02	12.0	15.2	-3.29
Darvin Ham	34	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.19	-8	-26	18	15.3	16.8	-1.50	13.9	14.5	-0.56
Ira Newble	45	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-28	22	15.3	17.1	-1.84	14.0	14.5	-0.55
Nazr Mohammed	28	29	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.14	-13	-21	8	15.7	16.4	-0.77	13.5	14.6	-1.16
Theo Ratliff	30	32	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.22	-16	-18	2	17.0	15.8	1.21	16.0	13.4	2.56
Alan Henderson	49	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.40	-23	-11	-12	16.9	15.5	1.36	13.5	15.2	-1.74
Mike Wilks	54	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.19	-17	-17	0	16.2	16.3	-0.07	15.3	12.9	2.39
Glenn Robinson	64	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.39	-24	-10	-14	16.4	15.8	0.66	14.5	13.9	0.62
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	55	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.22	-23	-11	-12	16.8	15.4	1.34	14.5	14.0	0.49
Jason Terry	64	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.37	-29	-5	-24	17.1	14.3	2.72	14.8	13.1	1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 116, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
BOS 88, DET 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
WAS 120, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%