NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	98		Excitement	4.3 [946]		MVP	George Lynch (NOH): +6.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	82		Comeback	1.8 [157]		LVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): -13.7%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Lynch	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	87%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	16	58%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	11	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	64%	0.02	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Courtney Alexander	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	11	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	20	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	17	64%	0.11	4	-0.08	10	60%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	-0.06	16	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	10	41%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	14	29%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.7	29.0	17.5	25.6	3.2	32.7	137.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +18.1%

NOH +11.0%

NOH +1.1%

NOH +20.3%

LAL -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	LAL	NBA	NOH	LAL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.7	15.5	108.9	91.1	101.6
season	15.9	15.4		101.6	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		102.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	11.7	13.8	17.5	19.0	15.3
LAL	16.0	19.0	16.8	15.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	90	90	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	0	16	15.3	0.0	15.26	16.7	0.0	16.74
Courtney Alexander	45	46	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.03	15	1	14	16.2	14.4	1.80	17.2	16.3	0.92
Elden Campbell	44	42	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.08	15	1	14	15.2	15.3	-0.14	16.8	16.7	0.08
George Lynch	38	38	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	1	14	15.3	15.2	0.10	17.2	16.4	0.72
Stacey Augmon	16	16	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.02	12	4	8	13.1	15.7	-2.59	18.7	16.3	2.44
Jamal Mashburn	74	74	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	12	-8	15.7	13.1	2.59	16.3	18.7	-2.44
P.J. Brown	52	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	15	-14	15.2	15.3	-0.10	16.4	17.2	-0.72
Jamaal Magloire	46	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	15	-14	15.3	15.2	0.14	16.7	16.8	-0.08
David Wesley	45	44	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	15	-14	14.4	16.2	-1.80	16.3	17.2	-0.92

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	42	42	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.13	7	-23	30	15.9	17.5	-1.53	13.9	16.4	-2.53
Mark Madsen	8	9	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-20	24	10.6	17.3	-6.72	18.3	14.9	3.42
Kareem Rush	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-18	20	8.7	17.1	-8.37	20.0	15.0	5.02
Tracy Murray	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-17	18	10.3	17.5	-7.12	17.8	14.9	2.86
Slava Medvedenko	3	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-16	16	17.7	16.7	0.95	17.7	15.2	2.49
Rick Fox	55	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-13	10	15.3	19.1	-3.78	15.8	14.3	1.50
Derek Fisher	61	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-13	10	15.6	19.1	-3.48	15.4	14.9	0.47
Devean George	35	34	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	-3	-10	19.1	15.3	3.78	14.3	15.8	-1.50
Kobe Bryant	81	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-2	-12	17.0	14.9	2.06	14.9	17.7	-2.75
Brian Shaw	34	33	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.09	-17	1	-18	19.2	15.2	3.96	15.0	15.4	-0.40
Shaquille O'Neal	73	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	4	-24	17.0	15.5	1.57	15.2	15.7	-0.51
Robert Horry	45	44	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.14	-24	8	-32	19.3	14.2	5.18	15.3	15.2	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 109, DAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.19,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
MIL 112, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
ORL 99, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%