NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	107		Excitement	5.6 [662]		MVP	Drew Gooden (MEM): +19.6%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	2.0 [336]		LVP	Travis Best (MIA): -13.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.08	0.01	14	76%	0.21	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.05
Wesley Person	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.03	0.04	11	89%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Lorenzen Wright	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	15	62%	0.09	2	-0.06	9	67%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brevin Knight	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	0.00
Mike Batiste	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.19	0.03	0.05	21	72%	0.19	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	62%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
LaPhonso Ellis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	15	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.03	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	8	53%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	41%	-0.05	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	7	56%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	12	33%	-0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	5	17%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	26.2	16.3	24.4	2.5	32.2	129.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +50.6%

MEM +13.3%

MIA -17.6%

MIA -1.8%

MEM +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	17.2	15.5	121.6	110.3	101.6
season	15.3	16.3		101.8	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.2		100.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.0	16.0	16.0	17.1	15.7
MIA	16.7	16.0	16.8	19.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	65	63	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.29	19	-8	27	15.6	16.1	-0.52	17.8	15.7	2.03
Wesley Person	68	68	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.24	16	-5	21	15.5	16.4	-0.90	17.0	17.8	-0.80
Pau Gasol	75	75	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.21	16	-5	21	15.5	17.0	-1.52	17.0	18.7	-1.78
Brevin Knight	62	63	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-3	17	15.6	16.0	-0.36	17.6	16.2	1.34
Lorenzen Wright	73	72	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	1	9	15.8	15.1	0.69	17.7	14.8	2.92
Earl Watson	26	24	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.08	-3	14	-17	16.0	15.6	0.36	16.2	17.6	-1.34
Stromile Swift	28	27	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	15	-19	16.0	15.6	0.43	16.6	17.5	-0.96
Gordan Giricek	20	19	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.07	-5	16	-21	16.4	15.5	0.90	17.8	17.0	0.80
Mike Batiste	23	24	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	-0.11	-8	19	-27	16.1	15.6	0.52	15.7	17.8	-2.03

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	18	19	0.01	-0.52	0.53	-0.10	4	-15	19	19.8	16.5	3.30	17.5	15.2	2.32
LaPhonso Ellis	13	13	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-10	9	17.2	17.2	0.01	13.9	16.0	-2.09
Anthony Carter	35	34	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-9	7	15.7	18.2	-2.56	15.0	16.2	-1.20
Eddie Jones	74	76	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-10	9	16.1	23.5	-7.34	16.0	13.8	2.17
Brian Grant	76	77	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-7	3	16.9	19.5	-2.56	15.9	14.0	1.95
Caron Butler	75	75	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	-3	-5	17.3	16.5	0.83	15.4	17.5	-2.06
Eddie House	41	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-6	1	18.9	15.7	3.19	16.4	15.1	1.38
Mike James	33	35	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-1	-9	17.1	17.3	-0.21	15.4	15.9	-0.46
Malik Allen	51	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	0	-11	16.3	18.6	-2.28	15.4	16.1	-0.74
Vladimir Stepania	19	19	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.17	-17	6	-23	21.8	15.9	5.85	15.2	15.8	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.46,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.36,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.3,0.2,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 101, CHA 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.36,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.19,0.06,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	94.3%
CHA 108, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.02,0,0,0,0	91.9%
NYK 106, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.3,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	91.6%