NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	82		Excitement	3.7 [1043]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +10.8%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	1.0 [1216]		LVP	Jalen Rose (CHI): -21.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corie Blount	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	83%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	9	63%	0.01	0	0.00	12	75%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Jay Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	9	22%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	2	29%	-0.03	2	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03
Eddy Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.02	-0.02	17	40%	-0.04	9	-0.18	1	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.01	-0.05	18	62%	0.12	2	-0.02	12	58%	-0.02
Tony Battie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	9	73%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	15	61%	0.11	3	-0.06	3	67%	0.01
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	10	35%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	2	40%	-0.02	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-0.08	19	30%	-0.11	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.5	25.3	15.8	30.2	2.4	27.6	131.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +27.9%

CHI -0.6%

BOS +2.3%

BOS +18.7%

BOS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	15.9	15.7	15.5	91.1	100.0	101.6
season	15.0	15.6		98.3	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.1		99.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.8	18.4	15.4	14.2	15.9
BOS	13.6	17.6	13.4	19.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Robinson	59	60	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.44	16	-26	42	16.1	15.6	0.50	17.3	12.8	4.44
Lonny Baxter	21	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.20	6	-16	22	14.6	16.3	-1.69	19.8	14.5	5.21
Fred Hoiberg	28	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-15	20	15.2	16.2	-1.01	18.4	14.5	3.86
Jamal Crawford	28	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-12	14	16.8	15.5	1.32	18.0	14.8	3.21
Corie Blount	58	59	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.37	9	-19	28	15.7	16.3	-0.67	16.9	13.6	3.28
Donyell Marshall	55	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.20	3	-13	16	16.5	14.9	1.63	15.5	16.1	-0.52
Eddy Curry	20	21	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.14	-16	6	-22	16.2	15.8	0.44	13.1	16.5	-3.36
Tyson Chandler	26	27	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.22	-22	12	-34	15.9	15.9	-0.04	12.5	17.1	-4.61
Jay Williams	62	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	2	-14	15.5	16.8	-1.32	14.8	18.0	-3.21
Jalen Rose	69	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	4	-18	15.9	16.0	-0.05	14.7	19.1	-4.35
Trenton Hassell	24	24	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.28	-27	17	-44	16.3	15.8	0.58	11.6	17.2	-5.57

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	54	52	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.07	23	-13	36	14.0	18.2	-4.12	16.8	14.7	2.03
Paul Pierce	84	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-5	20	15.5	18.6	-3.16	15.7	17.7	-2.02
Antoine Walker	89	87	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-4	18	15.8	12.7	3.18	16.1	10.7	5.43
Walter McCarty	55	52	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	2	6	16.3	14.9	1.37	15.6	16.3	-0.65
Tony Delk	55	54	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	11	-1	12	14.7	17.3	-2.56	16.3	15.4	0.87
Eric Williams	38	39	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	7	-4	14.4	16.7	-2.34	15.8	16.0	-0.11
Shammond Williams	47	46	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.30	-11	21	-32	17.7	13.7	4.01	15.8	16.0	-0.13
Vin Baker	38	38	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.28	-13	23	-36	18.2	14.0	4.12	14.7	16.8	-2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.77,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 83, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
SEA 75, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
TOR 101, BOS 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,1,1,1	95.5%