NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	8.2 [220]		MVP	Jumaine Jones (CLE): +22.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	99		Comeback	8.5 [394]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -37.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walt Williams	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.10	-0.00	10	70%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	21	57%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	6	86%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	7	63%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0	-0.10	0.09	-0.01	11	52%	0.12	4	-0.12	11	100%	0.14
Raja Bell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	4	55%	0.05	3	-0.15	3	67%	0.01
Steve Nash	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.25,-0.22	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	18	35%	-0.19	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.05	0.01	13	82%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.03	-0.01	23	40%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.05
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	6	43%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.03	-0.16	0.01	3	70%	0.05	3	-0.25	4	100%	0.08
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.16	-0.08	-0.02	8	6%	-0.18	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.37,-0.37	-0.37	-0.08	-0.29	0.01	24	53%	-0.11	4	-0.27	16	75%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.3	25.6	15.4	24.4	2.3	38.8	136.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +18.2%

DAL +29.8%

CLE -27.1%

DAL +32.8%

CLE -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CLE	NBA	DAL	CLE	NBA
this game	14.0	16.2	15.5	108.4	103.1	101.6
season	15.1	15.1		108.6	94.6
opponent	14.9	15.3		104.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.9	13.8	14.6	13.6	14.0
CLE	15.5	16.9	18.1	14.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	49	49	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.31	15	-11	26	14.4	13.5	0.97	16.0	16.4	-0.47
Eduardo Najera	62	63	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-6	16	13.7	14.4	-0.62	16.4	15.7	0.75
Avery Johnson	44	43	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.03	19	-15	34	14.0	13.9	0.04	17.0	15.6	1.39
Dirk Nowitzki	84	85	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	5	-6	13.8	15.5	-1.69	15.9	18.5	-2.66
Michael Finley	89	89	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	4	-4	13.7	17.2	-3.43	16.1	16.7	-0.57
Raja Bell	6	7	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	4	-4	14.3	13.9	0.40	12.6	16.5	-3.90
Steve Nash	72	73	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.34	-10	14	-24	14.0	13.7	0.29	15.6	18.1	-2.56
Shawn Bradley	46	47	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	3	-2	14.0	13.9	0.08	17.1	15.3	1.76
Adrian Griffin	23	24	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.06	-14	18	-32	14.7	13.7	0.92	17.0	15.9	1.08

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bimbo Coles	54	54	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.10	9	-13	22	17.8	14.1	3.76	14.6	13.0	1.60
Tyrone Hill	61	62	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.37	11	-15	26	15.9	16.7	-0.87	13.5	14.8	-1.23
Carlos Boozer	7	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	1	-6	14.7	16.3	-1.59	12.5	14.1	-1.56
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	78	78	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.44	11	-15	26	16.1	16.8	-0.73	14.1	13.5	0.59
DeSagana Diop	2	1	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	0	-4	13.0	16.3	-3.26	23.0	13.9	9.14
Darius Miles	72	71	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	1	-6	17.1	13.4	3.69	14.4	12.7	1.73
Jumaine Jones	96	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	16.2	0.0	16.19	14.0	0.0	13.96
Milt Palacio	42	41	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	9	-22	14.1	17.8	-3.76	13.0	14.6	-1.60
Ricky Davis	68	67	-0.90	0.40	-1.30	-0.31	-20	16	-36	15.9	16.9	-1.00	13.8	14.4	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.81,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 107, NOP 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.61,0.36,0.22,0.15,0	91.9%
TOR 108, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.43,0.27,0	91.2%
DAL 101, NJN 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.16,0	91.1%