NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	82		Excitement	6.2 [574]		MVP	Jason Williams (MEM): +12.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	96		Comeback	1.6 [1108]		LVP	Stromile Swift (MEM): -26.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	-0.02	0.01	17	72%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Buford	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Lorenzen Wright	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	13	45%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	11	35%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Tony Massenburg	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	4	30%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Grant Long	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.17,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.16	-0.09	0.02	15	29%	-0.21	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	6	100%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	5	43%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.01	0.04	12	68%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Olumide Oyedeji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	0.03	24	59%	0.09	5	-0.15	6	67%	-0.02
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	0.02	10	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	14	44%	0.00	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	40.0	1.8	30.1	16.3	22.7	2.5	27.2	140.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +26.4%

SEA +13.2%

SEA +17.8%

MEM -7.6%

SEA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SEA	NBA	MEM	SEA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.0	15.6	91.1	104.3	102.3
season	15.7	16.0		96.0	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.2		103.9	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.9	15.3	15.3	16.0	15.6
SEA	13.6	19.0	14.7	17.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Solomon	17	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	-12	10	16.1	15.5	0.54	18.4	15.4	2.94
Lorenzen Wright	46	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.04	-5	-9	4	14.8	16.5	-1.72	15.0	17.1	-2.18
Tony Massenburg	31	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-10	6	16.5	15.2	1.31	18.7	14.7	4.05
Grant Long	43	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-9	4	14.5	16.6	-2.13	16.9	15.2	1.71
Pau Gasol	54	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	-4	-6	15.1	16.4	-1.28	14.7	18.0	-3.31
Jason Williams	74	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-5	-4	15.6	15.7	-0.16	15.3	19.4	-4.09
Rodney Buford	54	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-2	-10	16.4	14.4	2.06	16.3	15.6	0.76
Stromile Swift	48	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	-2	-10	16.3	14.8	1.52	17.1	14.7	2.36
Shane Battier	83	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-3	-8	15.7	15.1	0.52	15.4	25.3	-9.96

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	81	80	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.08	20	-6	26	15.3	21.1	-5.76	15.7	15.3	0.36
Predrag Drobnjak	73	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-3	20	15.8	16.8	-1.03	15.5	16.2	-0.68
Desmond Mason	70	69	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.06	16	-2	18	16.7	14.0	2.66	15.7	15.5	0.13
Jerome James	54	53	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.04	16	-2	18	15.1	17.3	-2.16	15.8	15.4	0.37
Gary Payton	78	75	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	7	0	15.7	17.9	-2.16	15.6	15.7	-0.05
Randy Livingston	23	24	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	10	-6	17.8	15.4	2.41	15.3	15.7	-0.39
Vin Baker	36	35	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.13	-2	16	-18	17.9	14.8	3.16	15.6	15.7	-0.08
Rashard Lewis	40	38	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	16	-18	15.7	16.3	-0.61	15.8	15.5	0.38
Earl Watson	1	0	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	17	-20	2.0	16.2	-14.18	0.0	15.6	-15.62
Olumide Oyedeji	4	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	17	-20	20.5	15.8	4.68	15.0	15.7	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.82,0.76,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 85, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.97,1,1	94.3%
MIL 99, IND 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
SAS 96, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.64,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.78,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.8%