NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	9.6 [73]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +25.2%
Boston Celtics	102		Comeback	3.0 [767]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -29.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16	0.01	0.14	-0.01	7	82%	0.59	5	-0.43	3	67%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	18	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Danny Fortson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	13	59%	0.01	1	-0.05	8	75%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	10	45%	-0.05	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Antawn Jamison	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.36,-0.38,-0.38,-0.3	-0.15	-0.13	0.02	17	33%	-0.20	2	-0.09	5	40%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.25	0.25	0.02	0.23	0.00	21	60%	0.34	3	-0.09	13	77%	0.02
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	67%	0.10	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	6	53%	0.05	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	5	42%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.03	0.01	25	42%	-0.00	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	28.2	15.3	26.3	2.0	38.1	135.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +13.7%

BOS +16.9%

GSW -23.4%

BOS +42.2%

BOS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	15.1	13.5	15.6	98.0	102.0	102.3
season	14.7	15.0		100.7	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.1		98.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.7	14.1	18.6	13.6	15.1
BOS	14.7	15.2	12.7	11.6	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	35	34	0.68	-1.18	1.86	0.15	18	-21	39	14.9	15.3	-0.37	15.0	12.8	2.20
Larry Hughes	18	19	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.01	5	-8	13	14.2	15.3	-1.17	16.5	12.8	3.65
Bob Sura	44	42	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-1	-1	15.9	14.5	1.38	13.7	13.4	0.33
Adonal Foyle	40	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	1	-5	15.5	14.9	0.57	14.4	12.9	1.47
Troy Murphy	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.18	2	-5	7	13.8	15.7	-1.90	15.0	12.8	2.20
Gilbert Arenas	64	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-4	5	14.6	16.1	-1.55	13.5	13.6	-0.14
Danny Fortson	68	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	2	-7	15.7	13.8	1.90	12.8	15.0	-2.20
Antawn Jamison	68	69	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.31	-13	10	-23	14.9	15.6	-0.71	12.5	15.9	-3.41
Jason Richardson	76	75	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.51	-10	7	-17	15.4	14.4	1.02	12.7	16.0	-3.25
Erick Dampier	59	57	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.74	-7	4	-11	15.3	14.9	0.42	13.3	13.8	-0.47

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	54	55	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-10	23	14.1	12.9	1.16	14.1	16.4	-2.36
Erick Strickland	66	66	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	0	3	12.4	15.6	-3.22	14.6	16.2	-1.64
Paul Pierce	90	89	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	3	-3	13.5	13.5	0.02	15.4	12.7	2.70
Antoine Walker	96	94	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	4	-5	13.5	13.7	-0.24	15.3	13.1	2.13
Tony Battie	47	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	-3	9	13.0	14.0	-1.02	15.6	14.7	0.88
Tony Delk	38	42	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	-1	5	15.4	12.3	3.11	15.7	14.7	0.96
Rodney Rogers	51	54	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.31	-7	10	-17	12.4	14.7	-2.34	15.5	14.7	0.80
Walter McCarty	37	39	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	6	-9	15.0	12.7	2.35	15.5	14.9	0.67
Vitaly Potapenko	21	20	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	3	-3	13.5	13.5	0.00	13.7	15.5	-1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.73,0.65,0.46,0.56,0.94,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 82, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.8,0.96,0.99,1,1	91.3%
DAL 97, PHX 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.81,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.96,0.99,1,1	91.3%
SAS 90, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.9,1	91.1%