inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 79 Excitement4.4 [937] MVPTim Duncan (SAS): +11.5%
San Antonio Spurs 89 Comeback1.0 [1168] LVPTony Parker (SAS): -10.9%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Jim Jackson0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.07-0.020.031071%0.061-0.034100%0.00
Brian Grant0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.03-0.000.00757%0.0200.0000%0.00
Eddie House-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.010.010.001154%0.022-0.032100%0.00
Vladimir Stepania-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.04-0.000.00837%-0.021-0.0200%0.00
Chris Gatling-0.050,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.080.00-0.02636%-0.022-0.03250%-0.01
Alonzo Mourning-0.060,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.05-0.01-0.001352%0.013-0.07580%0.01
Anthony Carter-0.060,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.05-0.02-0.01333%-0.002-0.0600%0.00
Kendall Gill-0.060,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.05-0.01-0.0020%-0.041-0.0300%0.00
Rod Strickland-0.070,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07-0.07-0.01-0.00633%-0.032-0.0400%0.00
Eddie Jones-0.080,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.10-0.01-0.03840%0.003-0.084100%0.02

San Antonio Spurs
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Tim Duncan0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.120.120.100.020.001466%0.1200.00771%0.01
Antonio Daniels0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.02-0.030.01-0.03845%0.0200.006100%0.04
Danny Ferry0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.010.01-0.00-0.00450%0.0100.0000%0.00
Charles Smith0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.000.01-0.00867%0.073-0.072100%0.01
Mark Bryant00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Cherokee Parks0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.000.00-0.001100%0.001-0.0000%0.00
Malik Rose0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.030.01-0.02933%-0.0000.0000%0.00
Terry Porter0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.020.00-0.0110%-0.0100.0000%0.00
David Robinson0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.00-0.00850%-0.0100.00683%0.01
Bruce Bowen0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.100.02-0.02939%0.014-0.0700%0.00
Tony Parker0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11-0.11-0.09-0.010.011247%-0.053-0.06633%-0.05
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game25.61.825.116.731.22.628.2131.2
league avg46.42.228.514.624.52.330.0149.9
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
SAS +14.5%
SAS +13.1%
SAS +0.6%
SAS +17.8%
SAS +3.9%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIASASNBAMIASASNBA
this game17.615.415.690.8101.1102.3
season16.515.896.6104.3
opponent15.715.898.098.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA18.317.017.417.417.6
SAS13.615.014.718.615.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Chris Gatling32310.18-0.680.86-0.1110-203015.718.6-2.9517.214.42.81
Anthony Carter2525-0.09-0.410.31-0.183-131616.218.1-1.9515.515.30.20
Eddie House4849-0.20-0.300.11-0.200-101016.419.0-2.6716.114.51.59
Vladimir Stepania4546-0.22-0.280.07-0.220-101016.318.9-2.5215.615.10.54
Jim Jackson6163-0.24-0.260.01-0.364-141816.420.2-3.7716.712.24.49
Kendall Gill2322-0.26-0.24-0.020.15-144-1820.416.53.9212.016.5-4.44
Eddie Jones5454-0.28-0.22-0.050.02-100-1018.815.53.2315.415.30.18
Brian Grant3940-0.36-0.14-0.22-0.06-100-1018.516.81.6515.515.20.32
Rod Strickland5051-0.43-0.07-0.36-0.05-133-1618.116.81.3414.416.7-2.29
Alonzo Mourning5859-0.600.10-0.71-0.02-2010-3018.914.84.0914.118.0-3.86

San Antonio Spurs
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Tony Parker73710.60-0.100.710.1416-62214.917.7-2.7618.015.52.51
Tim Duncan78790.440.060.380.0912-21415.018.1-3.0717.617.50.06
Bruce Bowen61600.290.210.070.0582615.714.61.1318.216.12.04
Antonio Daniels56570.280.220.070.1455016.114.12.0116.719.2-2.57
David Robinson51500.240.26-0.02-0.1112-21416.014.51.5819.015.53.50
Charles Smith40390.240.26-0.030.0955014.016.5-2.4318.516.81.65
Malik Rose36360.220.28-0.050.1728-615.215.5-0.2116.118.6-2.46
Danny Ferry32320.130.37-0.240.19-212-1415.715.20.5416.618.1-1.56
Mark Bryant870.090.41-0.310.15-212-1413.715.5-1.7915.117.8-2.62
Cherokee Parks320.000.50-0.500.12-414-1819.015.23.7514.517.6-3.12
Terry Porter22-0.040.54-0.590.01-212-1422.515.27.295.517.8-12.34


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
MIL 106, SAC 1140.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.97,1,1,195.6%
ORL 89, GSW 1040.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,195.3%
CHA 74, ORL 1060.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,195.2%