NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	4.9 [840]		MVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): +20.2%
Sacramento Kings	114		Comeback	1.0 [1252]		LVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): -9.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.27	0.01	0.08	20	80%	0.24	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
David Noel	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lynn Greer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	7	56%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	11	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.02	13	55%	0.07	4	-0.11	12	75%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.04	0.07	17	47%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.25	0.01	0.06	23	71%	0.20	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	8	87%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	14	51%	0.06	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	3.3	26.5	15.4	25.5	2.6	37.0	134.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +36.2%

SAC +4.0%

MIL -5.4%

SAC +8.7%

SAC +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.1	15.2	15.4	111.6	120.0	104.5
season	15.2	14.7		105.3	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.5		106.0	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.7	14.0	16.8	14.1	15.1
SAC	13.8	15.4	16.7	15.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lynn Greer	14	14	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-12	16	14.0	15.3	-1.27	16.1	15.1	0.99
Dan Gadzuric	11	10	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-11	14	15.5	15.0	0.42	12.7	15.5	-2.83
David Noel	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-6	4	17.2	14.8	2.36	15.1	15.2	-0.15
Ersan Ilyasova	66	65	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.31	2	-10	12	14.4	16.7	-2.26	15.6	14.5	1.07
Brian Skinner	42	44	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	3	-14	16.5	14.0	2.45	15.4	15.1	0.33
Andrew Bogut	84	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	-1	-6	15.0	15.6	-0.62	15.2	15.7	-0.56
Charlie Bell	85	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-2	-4	14.8	17.2	-2.36	15.2	15.1	0.15
Ruben Patterson	82	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	3	-14	15.0	15.8	-0.88	15.2	15.2	0.09
Earl Boykins	81	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.23	-12	4	-16	15.3	14.0	1.27	15.1	16.1	-0.99

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	72	73	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	-7	22	14.7	17.0	-2.39	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Kenny Thomas	65	65	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-9	26	15.3	15.0	0.29	15.8	13.5	2.32
Kevin Martin	73	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-5	18	15.1	15.6	-0.47	15.1	14.9	0.23
Brad Miller	67	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.16	10	-2	12	14.9	16.1	-1.19	15.0	15.3	-0.31
Metta World Peace	77	77	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.19	7	1	6	15.2	15.5	-0.33	14.8	16.3	-1.54
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	37	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	7	-6	15.8	14.9	0.95	14.9	15.2	-0.27
John Salmons	41	39	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.31	-7	15	-22	15.4	15.1	0.32	14.5	15.5	-0.93
Francisco Garcia	25	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	13	-18	16.1	14.9	1.21	15.4	15.0	0.37
Corliss Williamson	12	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	14	-20	16.3	15.1	1.26	15.2	15.1	0.09
Quincy Douby	6	7	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	13	-18	16.5	15.1	1.35	15.7	15.0	0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 79, SAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.6%
WAS 91, PHX 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.76,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
SAS 88, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%