NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	3.3 [1107]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +8.3%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	1.4 [264]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DAL): -8.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Gatling	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	83%	0.15	4	-0.08	7	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	16	64%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	67%	0.04	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.17	0.00	0.14	13	79%	0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	10	46%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.00	0.05	17	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	0.00	0.04	10	60%	-0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	13	55%	0.02	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	15	55%	-0.00	4	-0.07	8	75%	-0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	7	17%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	27.8	15.8	26.4	2.4	30.6	132.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.4%

DAL -0.6%

MIA +7.7%

DAL -5.8%

DAL -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.9	13.1	15.6	113.5	99.0	102.3
season	16.5	14.8		96.6	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		105.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.1	16.8	15.5	17.2	16.9
DAL	14.0	13.8	15.1	10.1	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	79	78	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.34	29	-15	44	16.8	17.1	-0.27	13.4	11.8	1.56
Alonzo Mourning	59	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.33	27	-13	40	16.6	17.3	-0.70	13.6	12.3	1.30
Rod Strickland	64	63	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.22	20	-6	26	17.6	15.5	2.09	13.6	12.2	1.31
Kendall Gill	46	46	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.15	17	-3	20	16.6	17.1	-0.51	14.6	11.7	2.93
Brian Grant	57	57	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.32	20	-6	26	17.6	15.8	1.77	13.8	12.0	1.82
Chris Gatling	39	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	11	-8	15.3	18.0	-2.72	12.8	13.3	-0.52
Jim Jackson	56	56	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.39	-8	22	-30	17.0	16.7	0.34	12.0	14.6	-2.65
Anthony Carter	40	41	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.36	-8	22	-30	16.9	16.9	0.01	12.3	13.7	-1.46
Vladimir Stepania	24	22	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	13	-12	17.9	16.6	1.36	14.0	12.9	1.10
Sean Marks	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	25	-36	16.4	16.9	-0.52	6.4	13.5	-7.07
Mike James	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	23	-32	13.8	17.1	-3.27	7.2	13.5	-6.33
Malik Allen	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	25	-36	16.4	16.9	-0.52	6.4	13.5	-7.07

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	30	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.45	15	-29	44	11.6	13.8	-2.19	17.4	16.7	0.78
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	16	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.28	9	-23	32	10.3	13.7	-3.35	18.1	16.6	1.50
Evan Eschmeyer	22	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-11	8	15.3	12.4	2.87	17.2	16.8	0.42
Eduardo Najera	45	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-19	24	12.9	13.3	-0.32	15.8	17.9	-2.15
Wang Zhi-zhi	32	31	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.34	6	-20	26	11.2	14.1	-2.88	15.7	17.5	-1.75
Johnny Newman	37	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-12	10	12.8	13.3	-0.48	17.1	16.8	0.30
Nick Van Exel	55	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.14	-14	0	-14	13.3	12.9	0.44	17.0	16.7	0.32
Raef LaFrentz	38	37	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	0.27	-19	5	-24	13.5	12.9	0.61	17.2	16.7	0.48
Steve Nash	59	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.21	-20	6	-26	13.3	12.9	0.39	16.7	17.1	-0.39
Dirk Nowitzki	64	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.25	-24	10	-34	13.9	11.5	2.41	17.5	15.6	1.84
Michael Finley	82	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.21	-23	9	-32	13.5	10.5	3.05	16.7	17.6	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 103, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
NJN 83, CLE 72	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.38,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.6%
GSW 104, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%