NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	4.7 [861]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +3.5%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	1.2 [926]		LVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): -12.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	16	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.04	11	61%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Mengke Bateer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	12	34%	-0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.14	-0.02	-0.06	12	43%	-0.04	5	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	23	39%	-0.10	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	14	72%	0.12	5	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	82%	0.06	6	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	12	63%	0.04	3	-0.06	17	82%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	54%	0.01	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	44%	0.00	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	11	46%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	-0.06	7	38%	-0.04	2	-0.02	12	83%	0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.03	4	33%	-0.04	5	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	34.5	16.3	29.4	1.7	33.2	140.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +34.7%

GSW +15.7%

GSW +14.1%

DEN -16.3%

GSW +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.0	12.2	15.6	88.6	102.8	102.3
season	16.1	14.7		99.7	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.2		106.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	13.5	15.6	17.9	15.0
GSW	13.2	9.7	15.7	11.2	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	36	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-20	23	13.7	15.6	-1.90	11.3	12.7	-1.39
Voshon Lenard	23	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-13	9	17.4	14.3	3.15	12.1	12.3	-0.18
Mengke Bateer	31	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	-10	3	16.0	14.6	1.41	10.4	13.0	-2.59
George McCloud	68	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-15	13	15.1	14.8	0.29	11.8	13.0	-1.24
Scott Williams	46	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-13	9	14.7	15.2	-0.49	13.8	11.0	2.81
Kenny Satterfield	21	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.13	-11	-6	-5	14.5	15.1	-0.56	11.0	12.5	-1.44
Zendon Hamilton	25	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-10	3	15.4	14.8	0.56	11.5	12.4	-0.92
Calbert Cheaney	52	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	-7	-3	15.1	14.9	0.21	12.2	12.2	-0.05
Tim Hardaway	61	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-7	-3	14.4	15.8	-1.38	12.6	11.6	1.04
Juwan Howard	82	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	-4	-9	15.0	14.8	0.24	12.9	9.7	3.22
James Posey	80	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.11	-20	3	-23	14.8	15.5	-0.67	12.3	11.9	0.45

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	86	84	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.06	18	-1	19	12.9	9.5	3.42	15.5	12.9	2.64
Adonal Foyle	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.14	20	-3	23	12.3	12.1	0.25	15.0	14.9	0.03
Bob Sura	58	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.08	13	4	9	10.8	13.9	-3.09	15.2	14.7	0.45
Danny Fortson	54	54	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	10	-3	13.5	10.9	2.65	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Antawn Jamison	84	82	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	10	-3	12.3	11.8	0.51	14.5	16.7	-2.15
Gilbert Arenas	67	64	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	7	3	10.7	14.8	-4.19	14.9	15.1	-0.29
Larry Hughes	49	48	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	13	-9	13.9	10.8	3.09	14.7	15.2	-0.45
Troy Murphy	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	13	-9	11.2	12.7	-1.52	15.3	14.8	0.43
Erick Dampier	37	36	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	15	-13	12.1	12.3	-0.14	15.3	14.8	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, MIN 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
DEN 83, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.89,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
MEM 86, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%