NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	4.6 [879]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (PHX): +12.8%
Phoenix Suns	92		Comeback	1.2 [420]		LVP	Malik Rose (SAS): -10.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.11	-0.03	-0.01	19	64%	0.10	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	12	62%	0.06	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Tim Duncan	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	20	48%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Antonio Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Danny Ferry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charles Smith	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	7	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Malik Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	0.00	-0.03	7	18%	-0.07	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	24	64%	0.19	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.05
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	14	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alton Ford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	18	45%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	13	50%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.5	26.3	14.8	24.0	1.8	26.3	119.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +32.3%

PHX +6.3%

PHX +18.1%

SAS -6.3%

SAS -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	16.4	17.1	15.6	96.5	107.0	102.3
season	15.8	15.1		104.3	101.0
opponent	15.8	15.7		102.1	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	19.3	15.8	16.0	14.2	16.4
PHX	12.5	19.2	18.2	18.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	27	26	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.24	10	-19	29	15.5	16.8	-1.33	20.2	15.7	4.50
Danny Ferry	39	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-17	25	14.7	17.8	-3.16	18.8	15.7	3.16
Charles Smith	28	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	0	-9	17.9	15.7	2.27	15.8	17.7	-1.91
David Robinson	65	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-12	15	15.6	18.8	-3.19	18.1	13.8	4.29
Malik Rose	21	20	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.08	-12	3	-15	18.8	15.6	3.19	13.8	18.1	-4.29
Antonio Daniels	56	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-9	9	15.6	17.8	-2.21	17.9	15.7	2.19
Tony Parker	48	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	9	-27	17.5	15.0	2.55	15.5	19.2	-3.77
Tim Duncan	86	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	16.4	0.0	16.40	17.1	0.0	17.09
Steven Smith	60	59	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.00	-18	9	-27	17.0	14.9	2.11	15.8	19.9	-4.08

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Gugliotta	69	69	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.08	18	-9	27	16.7	18.8	-2.16	16.5	16.1	0.35
Joe Johnson	68	67	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-4	17	16.6	18.8	-2.20	16.7	15.3	1.45
Shawn Marion	72	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	-5	19	16.4	20.6	-4.24	16.5	15.8	0.74
Stephon Marbury	75	75	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	-2	13	16.7	19.9	-3.23	16.8	13.8	2.96
Jake Tsakalidis	66	67	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	0	9	17.0	17.3	-0.27	16.3	16.8	-0.57
Milt Palacio	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.08	-2	11	-13	19.9	16.7	3.23	13.8	16.8	-2.96
Alton Ford	5	4	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	12	-15	18.0	17.0	0.96	15.2	16.5	-1.20
Bo Outlaw	32	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.12	-6	15	-21	18.0	16.6	1.44	16.7	16.2	0.42
Dan Majerle	32	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.21	-9	18	-27	19.6	15.6	4.03	15.5	16.9	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.78,0.84,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.92,0.85,0.97,1,1	94.8%
IND 107, MIL 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.83,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.74,0.68,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.96,1	94.7%
LAC 84, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.92,1,1,1	94.0%