NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	103		Excitement	7.1 [395]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +18.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	107		Comeback	2.7 [1052]		LVP	Grant Long (MEM): -16.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.01	14	81%	0.30	5	-0.19	9	89%	0.03
Ike Austin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	13	31%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	16	53%	0.06	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Brevin Knight	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	18	56%	0.05	4	-0.13	7	86%	0.03
Tony Massenburg	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	32%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Grant Long	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.04	-0.13	-0.00	13	55%	0.02	4	-0.19	3	67%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.13	-0.00	21	60%	0.26	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.07
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.02	-0.03	21	62%	0.18	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	63%	0.08	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	62%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	11	45%	0.11	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	26.0	15.0	20.5	1.8	34.2	123.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +36.5%

MEM -1.5%

MIL +0.2%

MIL +17.9%

MEM -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIL	NBA	MEM	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.2	15.6	110.8	110.3	102.3
season	15.7	15.3		96.0	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.2		105.1	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.3	19.8	17.5	14.2	16.1
MIL	16.6	12.4	13.2	14.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	42	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.05	1	-5	6	15.9	16.3	-0.41	15.0	13.6	1.44
Ike Austin	6	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-1	-2	19.7	15.9	3.80	11.2	14.5	-3.28
Will Solomon	7	8	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	4	-12	21.1	15.7	5.45	13.6	14.3	-0.68
Brevin Knight	86	89	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.48	4	-8	12	15.7	21.1	-5.45	14.3	13.6	0.68
Grant Long	80	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.44	1	-5	6	16.0	16.7	-0.68	14.3	13.9	0.38
Shane Battier	90	94	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-2	0	16.2	13.3	2.87	14.4	8.3	6.10
Pau Gasol	85	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-2	0	15.5	22.5	-6.99	14.2	15.0	-0.81
Rodney Buford	69	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.25	-11	7	-18	16.7	14.5	2.17	13.8	15.4	-1.66

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	49	49	1.10	-0.60	1.69	0.39	24	-20	44	13.7	14.8	-1.16	17.4	14.6	2.79
Sam Cassell	92	89	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.39	7	-3	10	13.9	21.2	-7.33	16.0	19.0	-3.02
Michael Redd	61	57	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	-8	20	13.1	16.1	-2.96	17.4	14.1	3.35
Anthony Mason	75	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.34	-2	6	-8	14.4	13.8	0.61	15.6	17.9	-2.35
Glenn Robinson	72	69	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.36	-4	8	-12	14.6	13.1	1.52	15.4	18.0	-2.61
Ray Allen	68	64	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.35	-4	8	-12	14.9	12.8	2.07	15.1	18.4	-3.30
Ervin Johnson	31	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.10	4	0	4	14.3	14.2	0.02	18.6	15.0	3.63
Joel Przybilla	37	36	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.12	-17	21	-38	15.6	13.4	2.13	14.7	17.0	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.57,0.71,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.81,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 107, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.58,1	91.8%
CHI 99, BOS 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.73,0.86,0.87,0.97,0.97,1	91.6%
OKC 90, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.72,0.86,0.91,1	91.1%