NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	115		Excitement	5.1 [785]		MVP	Damon Jones (DET): +9.3%
Cleveland Cavaliers	107		Comeback	1.0 [679]		LVP	Wesley Person (CLE): -11.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	4	120%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jon Barry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	74%	0.09	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Jerry Stackhouse	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.06	19	49%	0.04	3	-0.02	9	89%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Zeljko Rebraca	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	6	64%	0.07	3	-0.06	10	80%	0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	11	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	12	75%	0.02
Clifford Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.13	-0.01	0.06	17	67%	0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	-0.02	0.08	15	75%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	11	71%	0.10	8	-0.14	6	83%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	0.02	10	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	13	47%	-0.08	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Person	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	30.8	15.0	29.2	2.4	37.6	141.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +15.3%

DET +27.7%

CLE -7.6%

DET +11.3%

DET +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	14.1	14.3	15.6	112.7	105.9	102.3
season	15.7	15.8		101.9	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.2	14.0	15.5	13.5	14.1
CLE	14.5	14.8	12.7	15.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	48	48	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.19	18	-10	28	13.5	14.6	-1.17	15.1	13.5	1.62
Zeljko Rebraca	34	35	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.01	22	-14	36	13.2	14.5	-1.31	16.7	13.0	3.70
Corliss Williamson	54	53	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-9	26	13.6	14.6	-0.95	15.5	13.0	2.51
Jon Barry	64	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	1	6	13.2	15.5	-2.27	14.8	13.4	1.36
Jerry Stackhouse	69	68	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.28	0	8	-8	14.1	14.1	-0.02	13.8	15.3	-1.45
Michael Curry	57	58	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	6	-4	15.4	12.4	3.00	13.5	15.4	-1.87
Ben Wallace	75	73	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.29	-8	16	-24	14.3	13.6	0.71	13.4	16.7	-3.39
Clifford Robinson	55	54	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	16	-24	14.4	13.7	0.74	13.7	15.0	-1.31
Chucky Atkins	54	53	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	18	-28	14.6	13.5	1.17	13.5	15.1	-1.62

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	3	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-8	8	14.7	14.3	0.38	18.3	13.9	4.38
Brian Skinner	69	69	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-11	14	13.7	15.5	-1.76	14.3	13.5	0.83
Bimbo Coles	25	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.05	-1	-7	6	14.6	14.2	0.46	14.0	14.1	-0.05
Bryant Stith	30	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-4	0	11.3	15.5	-4.22	14.9	13.7	1.19
Chris Mihm	24	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	0	-8	14.9	14.1	0.81	13.7	14.2	-0.43
Ricky Davis	67	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-10	12	14.8	13.3	1.47	13.8	14.6	-0.82
Jumaine Jones	58	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-11	14	14.9	13.5	1.41	13.8	14.4	-0.55
Wesley Person	47	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.00	-9	1	-10	14.3	14.3	0.04	14.3	13.9	0.33
Lamond Murray	69	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-4	0	14.2	14.5	-0.25	14.1	14.0	0.16
Andre Miller	76	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-1	-6	14.2	14.6	-0.46	14.1	14.0	0.05
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	37	39	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	7	-22	15.6	13.5	2.05	13.4	14.5	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.17,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 91, MIA 80	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.13,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
HOU 99, NJN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.18,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.4%
PHI 97, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.16,0.03,0,0	94.0%