NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	91		Excitement	4.2 [956]		MVP	Kenny Thomas (HOU): +16.4%
Miami Heat	80		Comeback	1.0 [494]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -9.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Thomas	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.09	-0.03	9	65%	0.18	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bullard	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	10	60%	0.05	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Maurice Taylor	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	10	50%	0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	14	55%	-0.00	2	-0.01	10	90%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	6	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	57%	0.02	2	-0.07	12	100%	0.07
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	12	56%	-0.03	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	11	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	15	47%	0.00	6	-0.10	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	0.2	14.8	0.8	26.0	0.2	19.8	83.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +54.5%

MIA -10.9%

HOU +1.3%

HOU +4.5%

HOU +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	17.6	15.5	107.1	95.2	100.9
season	16.3	16.3		104.6	98.4
opponent	16.1	14.9		96.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.6	16.6	17.6	17.2	16.5
MIA	18.3	18.5	15.1	18.8	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	68	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-3	17	15.9	18.6	-2.66	17.2	19.4	-2.16
Moochie Norris	40	42	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-4	19	16.9	16.1	0.83	18.2	17.1	1.12
Kenny Thomas	45	47	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-2	15	17.4	15.3	2.09	18.1	17.1	0.98
Hakeem Olajuwon	48	46	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	6	-1	15.5	17.7	-2.15	17.5	17.7	-0.19
Cuttino Mobley	53	54	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.23	4	7	-3	17.6	14.6	2.99	17.1	18.6	-1.51
Shandon Anderson	42	40	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.01	7	4	3	14.8	18.1	-3.26	18.2	17.1	1.18
Walt Williams	51	48	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	4	3	16.1	17.0	-0.95	18.1	16.9	1.20
Maurice Taylor	51	49	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	10	-9	15.4	18.0	-2.57	17.5	17.8	-0.24
Matt Bullard	27	27	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.19	-11	22	-33	20.2	14.7	5.46	16.7	18.1	-1.42

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Causwell	7	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-10	9	12.0	18.1	-6.14	16.2	16.5	-0.31
Bruce Bowen	66	67	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-10	9	16.8	20.8	-4.01	16.6	16.1	0.44
Eddie House	8	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	-4	-3	19.5	17.4	2.07	16.4	16.5	-0.09
A.C. Green	8	8	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	-2	-7	17.7	17.6	0.13	18.0	16.3	1.70
Eddie Jones	77	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-7	3	17.7	16.9	0.84	16.3	18.3	-1.99
Anthony Mason	79	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-7	3	17.5	19.8	-2.31	16.5	15.6	0.91
Brian Grant	65	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-4	-3	18.9	13.3	5.58	16.6	16.1	0.51
Tim Hardaway	67	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	-4	-3	17.3	19.1	-1.86	15.7	19.7	-4.05
Anthony Carter	43	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	4	-19	18.3	16.9	1.38	17.4	15.6	1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.13,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 115, CLE 107	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.17,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
DEN 117, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MIA 102, ORL 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.26,0.29,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%