NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	77		Excitement	3.5 [1067]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +6.3%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.0 [689]		LVP	Jason Collins (NJN): -9.6%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Todd MacCulloch	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	8	58%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Donny Marshall	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	13	56%	0.03	3	-0.05	8	75%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	12	32%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Jason Collins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	3	20%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	79%	0.13	4	-0.07	9	78%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	57%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	82%	0.03	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	9	52%	0.05	4	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	11	45%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	11	57%	0.00	1	-0.02	13	54%	-0.04
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	9	45%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	27.3	16.4	30.4	2.5	26.5	129.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.1%

MIA +2.0%

MIA +7.8%

MIA +1.6%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	19.1	15.6	93.9	109.8	102.3
season	14.7	16.5		101.4	96.6
opponent	15.8	16.0		98.2	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	16.5	16.5	15.6	15.6	16.0
MIA	16.3	21.4	17.1	22.3	19.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donny Marshall	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-19	25	13.7	16.1	-2.47	27.3	18.8	8.57
Brandon Armstrong	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-19	25	13.7	16.1	-2.47	27.3	18.8	8.57
Anthony Johnson	7	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-17	21	15.7	16.1	-0.37	20.6	18.9	1.72
Aaron Williams	20	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-8	3	17.0	15.7	1.32	20.2	18.7	1.52
Richard Jefferson	42	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-17	21	15.3	16.9	-1.61	21.0	17.1	3.90
Jason Collins	43	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-13	13	15.8	16.3	-0.44	19.8	18.4	1.38
Lucious Harris	36	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-7	1	17.0	15.3	1.65	19.9	18.5	1.40
Todd MacCulloch	28	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.11	-14	1	-15	16.4	15.9	0.58	17.1	20.2	-3.10
Jason Kidd	60	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	2	-17	15.8	16.8	-1.05	19.0	19.2	-0.16
Keith Van Horn	48	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	-2	-9	16.0	16.1	-0.02	17.8	21.0	-3.21
Kerry Kittles	58	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	2	-17	15.9	16.3	-0.40	17.9	21.5	-3.55
Kenyon Martin	62	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.14	-19	6	-25	16.4	15.1	1.25	18.5	20.8	-2.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	62	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	-5	23	19.2	18.8	0.36	16.4	15.0	1.37
Kendall Gill	64	63	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.03	16	-3	19	17.6	24.3	-6.74	15.7	17.3	-1.58
Brian Grant	56	54	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.04	13	0	13	19.5	18.2	1.29	16.7	14.8	1.86
Rod Strickland	61	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.12	17	-4	21	18.3	21.3	-3.04	16.2	15.5	0.77
Alonzo Mourning	60	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.02	13	0	13	17.4	23.6	-6.24	15.7	17.1	-1.46
LaPhonso Ellis	48	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	13	-13	20.7	16.8	3.89	15.8	16.4	-0.62
Jim Jackson	42	42	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	13	-13	21.0	17.0	4.00	16.2	15.9	0.29
Eddie House	14	14	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.23	-6	19	-25	21.2	18.6	2.58	15.5	16.2	-0.66
Mike James	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	19	-25	27.3	18.8	8.57	13.7	16.1	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.68,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 86, DET 103	0.5,0.49,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MIA 87, CHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MIA 70, SAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%